用大模型模拟交易者避险心理,揭示市场崩溃的微妙触发机制
Shifting Power: Leveraging LLMs to Simulate Human Aversion in ABMs of Bilateral Financial Exchanges, A bond market study
- 将大模型嵌入代理模型,让虚拟交易员具备类人决策能力
- 微小避险倾向即可导致交易完全停滞,暴露市场脆弱性
- 真实人类行为变异性使客户权力上升,可能引发系统性崩塌
双边市场(如国债市场)由做市商与客户之间的去中心化、不透明交易构成,传统建模方法难以应对。为此,我们提出TRIBE——一个融合大语言模型(LLM)的代理模型,用于模拟交易环境中的类人决策。TRIBE利用公开数据与典型事实,将风险规避和模糊敏感等人类偏见融入代理决策过程,实现更真实的交易动态。研究有三大贡献:首先,证明在代理模型中引入LLM以增强客户主体性是可行的,显著丰富了复杂市场的行为模拟;其次,发现即使在LLM中编码极轻微的交易避险倾向,也会导致交易活动完全停止,凸显市场动态对个体风险偏好的高度敏感性;第三,揭示引入类人随机性可使权力向客户倾斜,常引发系统性代理崩溃。这些结果表明,引入随机且类人的决策机制会催生新涌现特性,提升人工社会的真实感与复杂性。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Bilateral markets, such as those for government bonds, involve decentralized and opaque transactions between market makers (MMs) and clients, posing significant challenges for traditional modeling approaches. To address these complexities, we introduce TRIBE an agent-based model augmented with a large language model (LLM) to simulate human-like decision-making in trading environments. TRIBE leverages publicly available data and stylized facts to capture realistic trading dynamics, integrating human biases like risk aversion and ambiguity sensitivity into the decision-making processes of agents. Our research yields three key contributions: first, we demonstrate that integrating LLMs into agent-based models to enhance client agency is feasible and enriches the simulation of agent behaviors in complex markets; second, we find that even slight trade aversion encoded within the LLM leads to a complete cessation of trading activity, highlighting the sensitivity of market dynamics to agents' risk profiles; third, we show that incorporating human-like variability shifts power dynamics towards clients and can disproportionately affect the entire system, often resulting in systemic agent collapse across simulations. These findings underscore the emergent properties that arise when introducing stochastic, human-like decision processes, revealing new system behaviors that enhance the realism and complexity of artificial societies.
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