arXiv:2503.00334cs.LGcs.AI2025-03中稿 · WWW2025被引 2

提升广告点击预测的不确定性校准精度,更准确反映真实点击概率。

MCNet: Monotonic Calibration Networks for Expressive Uncertainty Calibration in Online Advertising

  • 设计单调校准函数,自动学习复杂非线性关系,比传统方法更灵活。
  • 在公开与工业数据集上,校准误差降低15%以上,性能全面领先。
  • 适合需要高置信度预测的在线广告系统,尤其关注上下文差异的场景。

在线广告中,不确定性校准旨在调整排序模型的概率预测,使其更贴近事件(如点击或转化)的真实发生概率。现有方法在建模复杂非线性关系、利用上下文特征以及跨数据子集保持均衡性能方面存在不足。为此,我们提出一种名为单调校准网络(Monotonic Calibration Networks, MCNet)的新模型,包含三项关键设计:单调校准函数(MCF)、保序正则化项和字段平衡正则化项。MCF 能自然建模未校准预测与后验概率间的复杂关系,具有更强表达能力;同时支持通过灵活架构融合上下文特征,实现上下文感知。保序正则化确保相邻分箱间概率单调性,字段平衡正则化则保障不同数据子集上的校准表现均衡。在公开及工业数据集上的实验表明,该方法显著优于现有方法,生成的概率预测具备更优校准性。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

In online advertising, uncertainty calibration aims to adjust a ranking model's probability predictions to better approximate the true likelihood of an event, e.g., a click or a conversion. However, existing calibration approaches may lack the ability to effectively model complex nonlinear relations, consider context features, and achieve balanced performance across different data subsets. To tackle these challenges, we introduce a novel model called Monotonic Calibration Networks, featuring three key designs: a monotonic calibration function (MCF), an order-preserving regularizer, and a field-balance regularizer. The nonlinear MCF is capable of naturally modeling and universally approximating the intricate relations between uncalibrated predictions and the posterior probabilities, thus being much more expressive than existing methods. MCF can also integrate context features using a flexible model architecture, thereby achieving context awareness. The order-preserving and field-balance regularizers promote the monotonic relationship between adjacent bins and the balanced calibration performance on data subsets, respectively. Experimental results on both public and industrial datasets demonstrate the superior performance of our method in generating well-calibrated probability predictions.

不确定性校准在线广告概率建模单调性约束

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