热浪让南半球超密集城市夜间灯光增强，反映活动转移至夜晚。
Heatwave increases nighttime light intensity in hyperdense cities of the Global South: A double machine learning study
- 用双重机器学习分析2013–2019年四城灯光数据，控制气候干扰。
- 热浪第三天，开罗、德里、广州灯光上升；圣保罗第四天才显现。
- 揭示城市形态与应对能力差异，助力制定适应性政策。
气候变化与快速城市化加剧热浪，对全球南方城市构成重大威胁，尤其在适应能力受限的地区。本研究考察热浪与夜间灯光（NTL）辐射（夜间经济活动代理指标）的关系，覆盖德里、广州、开罗和圣保罗四座超密集城市。基于假设：热浪会提升夜间活动，采用双重机器学习（DML）框架，分析2013至2019年数据，控制本地气候混杂因素，量化热浪对NTL的影响。结果显示，热浪期间NTL强度显著上升：开罗、德里和广州在第三天出现峰值，圣保罗则延迟至第四天。敏感性分析验证了结果稳健性，表明持续热应激促使城市居民将活动转移至夜间。城市间异质响应凸显城市形态与适应能力的潜在影响。研究为政策制定者提供数据支持，以制定科学热适应策略，保障城市在日益变暖世界中的宜居性与经济韧性。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Heatwaves, intensified by climate change and rapid urbanisation, pose significant threats to urban systems, particularly in the Global South, where adaptive capacity is constrained. This study investigates the relationship between heatwaves and nighttime light (NTL) radiance, a proxy of nighttime economic activity, in four hyperdense cities: Delhi, Guangzhou, Cairo, and Sao Paulo. We hypothesised that heatwaves increase nighttime activity. Using a double machine learning (DML) framework, we analysed data from 2013 to 2019 to quantify the impact of heatwaves on NTL while controlling for local climatic confounders. Results revealed a statistically significant increase in NTL intensity during heatwaves, with Cairo, Delhi, and Guangzhou showing elevated NTL on the third day, while São Paulo exhibits a delayed response on the fourth day. Sensitivity analyses confirmed the robustness of these findings, indicating that prolonged heat stress prompts urban populations to shift activities to night. Heterogeneous responses across cities highlight the possible influence of urban morphology and adaptive capacity to heatwave impacts. Our findings provide a foundation for policymakers to develop data-driven heat adaptation strategies, ensuring that cities remain liveable and economically resilient in an increasingly warming world.
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