arXiv:2503.00650cs.LGecon.TH2025-03ICLR被引 1

等待更准预测可能适得其反,反而降低资源分配效率。

The Hidden Cost of Waiting for Accurate Predictions

  • 用数学模型分析预测随时间优化时的排名与资源分配策略
  • 发现准确率上升但平均排序损失反而增加,整体社会福利下降
  • 揭示不平等是导致该反直觉现象的核心原因,适合政策制定者参考

算法预测正越来越多地用于决定社会资源的分配,以识别需要干预的个体。政策制定者通常假设,通过收集更多个体数据可提升预测准确性,从而提高资源配置效率。然而,预测驱动分配中一个被忽视却至关重要的方面是时机。决策者需在依赖早期较不精确的预测提前干预,或等待更多数据以实现更精准分配之间权衡。本文通过一个简单数学模型研究这一矛盾:规划者随时间收集个体观测数据以改进预测。我们分析了由此产生的排名及最优资源分配。结果表明,尽管个体预测准确率随时间提升,但平均排名损失可能恶化,导致规划者改善社会福利的能力下降。我们识别出不平等是造成此反直觉现象的关键因素。研究为传统观点提出挑战:并非总是等待更准确预测才更优。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Algorithmic predictions are increasingly informing societal resource allocations by identifying individuals for targeting. Policymakers often build these systems with the assumption that by gathering more observations on individuals, they can improve predictive accuracy and, consequently, allocation efficiency. An overlooked yet consequential aspect of prediction-driven allocations is that of timing. The planner has to trade off relying on earlier and potentially noisier predictions to intervene before individuals experience undesirable outcomes, or they may wait to gather more observations to make more precise allocations. We examine this tension using a simple mathematical model, where the planner collects observations on individuals to improve predictions over time. We analyze both the ranking induced by these predictions and optimal resource allocation. We show that though individual prediction accuracy improves over time, counter-intuitively, the average ranking loss can worsen. As a result, the planner's ability to improve social welfare can decline. We identify inequality as a driving factor behind this phenomenon. Our findings provide a nuanced perspective and challenge the conventional wisdom that it is preferable to wait for more accurate predictions to ensure the most efficient allocations.

算法公平资源分配预测延迟社会福利

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