S4M直接在模型中处理多变量时间序列缺失数据,效果优于传统两步法。
S4M: S4 for multivariate time series forecasting with Missing values
- 将缺失模式融入S4模型的隐空间,实现端到端建模。
- 在真实数据集上超越现有方法,最高提升12.3%性能。
- 适合高缺失率、复杂依赖关系的工业级时间序列预测。
多变量时间序列在众多实际应用中至关重要,但块状缺失数据会显著影响预测模型性能。传统两步法(先填补后预测)在高缺失率和复杂依赖结构下易产生误差累积。本文提出S4M,一种将缺失数据处理无缝集成到结构化状态空间序列(S4)模型中的端到端框架。S4M通过自适应时间原型映射器(ATPM)从历史数据中提取稳健表征,并利用缺失感知双流S4(MDS-S4)以表征与缺失掩码为双输入,实现精准预测。在多个真实世界数据集上的实验表明,S4M始终达到领先水平,验证了其在处理缺失数据方面的有效性与鲁棒性。该研究为实际应用中可靠的时间序列预测提供了新方向。代码已开源:https://github.com/WINTERWEEL/S4M.git。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Multivariate time series data play a pivotal role in a wide range of real-world applications. However, the presence of block missing data introduces significant challenges, often compromising the performance of predictive models. Traditional two-step approaches, which first impute missing values and then perform forecasting, are prone to error accumulation, particularly in complex multivariate settings characterized by high missing ratios and intricate dependency structures. In this work, we introduce S4M, an end-to-end time series forecasting framework that seamlessly integrates missing data handling into the Structured State Space Sequence (S4) model architecture. Unlike conventional methods that treat imputation as a separate preprocessing step, S4M leverages the latent space of S4 models to directly recognize and represent missing data patterns, thereby more effectively capturing the underlying temporal and multivariate dependencies. Our framework comprises two key components: the Adaptive Temporal Prototype Mapper (ATPM) and the Missing-Aware Dual Stream S4 (MDS-S4). The ATPM employs a prototype bank to derive robust and informative representations from historical data patterns, while the MDS-S4 processes these representations alongside missingness masks as dual input streams to enable accurate forecasting. Through extensive empirical evaluations on diverse real-world datasets, we demonstrate that S4M consistently achieves state-of-the-art performance. These results underscore the efficacy of our integrated approach in handling missing data, showcasing its robustness and superiority over traditional imputation-based methods. Our findings highlight the potential of S4M to advance reliable time series forecasting in practical applications, offering a promising direction for future research and deployment. Code is available at https://github.com/WINTERWEEL/S4M.git.
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