用大模型闭环增强时间序列预测的可解释性。
TimeXL: Explainable Multi-modal Time Series Prediction with LLM-in-the-Loop
- 融合时序与文本原型,通过三类大模型协同推理
- 在四个数据集上提升最高8.9%的AUC性能
- 适合需要透明决策依据的工业场景
时间序列分析为现实系统动态提供关键洞察并支持下游决策,但现有方法常忽视辅助模态中的丰富上下文信号。为此,我们提出TimeXL,一个整合原型编码器与三类协同大型语言模型(LLMs)的多模态预测框架,实现更准确的预测与可解释性。首先,多模态原型编码器处理时序与文本输入,生成初步预测及基于案例的解释。这些输出输入预测LLM,后者通过推理编码器输出进一步优化预测。接着,反思LLM将预测值与真实值对比,识别文本不一致或噪声。在反馈指导下,精炼LLM迭代改进文本质量并触发编码器重训练。这一预测-批判-精炼的闭环流程持续提升模型性能与可解释性。在四个真实世界数据集上的实证评估显示,TimeXL在AUC上最高提升8.9%,并生成以人为本的多模态解释,凸显大模型驱动推理在时间序列预测中的潜力。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Time series analysis provides essential insights for real-world system dynamics and informs downstream decision-making, yet most existing methods often overlook the rich contextual signals present in auxiliary modalities. To bridge this gap, we introduce TimeXL, a multi-modal prediction framework that integrates a prototype-based time series encoder with three collaborating Large Language Models (LLMs) to deliver more accurate predictions and interpretable explanations. First, a multi-modal prototype-based encoder processes both time series and textual inputs to generate preliminary forecasts alongside case-based rationales. These outputs then feed into a prediction LLM, which refines the forecasts by reasoning over the encoder's predictions and explanations. Next, a reflection LLM compares the predicted values against the ground truth, identifying textual inconsistencies or noise. Guided by this feedback, a refinement LLM iteratively enhances text quality and triggers encoder retraining. This closed-loop workflow-prediction, critique (reflect), and refinement-continuously boosts the framework's performance and interpretability. Empirical evaluations on four real-world datasets demonstrate that TimeXL achieves up to 8.9% improvement in AUC and produces human-centric, multi-modal explanations, highlighting the power of LLM-driven reasoning for time series prediction.
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