用量子神经网络预测多资产股价,更准更快。
Contextual Quantum Neural Networks for Stock Price Prediction
- 基于量子叠加设计新训练法,加速收敛。
- 可同时预测多只股票,误差比单任务模型低12.3%。
- 适合金融量化研究者和量子算法开发者。
本文将量子机器学习(QML)应用于多资产股价预测,提出一种上下文量子神经网络。该方法聚焦近期趋势而非全部历史数据,提升模型适应性与精度。利用量子叠加原理,引入量子批量梯度更新(QBGU)技术,加速标准随机梯度下降(SGD)在量子场景中的收敛。进而提出量子多任务学习(QMTL)架构——共享与指定变分电路(share-and-specify ansatz),通过量子标签控制任务特异性算子,实现同一量子电路上多资产高效联合训练,并以对数级资源开销完成投资组合表示。在标普500指数的苹果、谷歌、微软、亚马逊四只股票数据集上实验表明,该方法不仅显著优于量子单任务学习(QSTL)模型,且有效捕捉资产间相关性,提升预测准确率。结果凸显量子机器学习在金融领域的变革潜力,为复杂金融建模提供高效资源方案。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
In this paper, we apply quantum machine learning (QML) to predict the stock prices of multiple assets using a contextual quantum neural network. Our approach captures recent trends to predict future stock price distributions, moving beyond traditional models that focus on entire historical data, enhancing adaptability and precision. Utilizing the principles of quantum superposition, we introduce a new training technique called the quantum batch gradient update (QBGU), which accelerates the standard stochastic gradient descent (SGD) in quantum applications and improves convergence. Consequently, we propose a quantum multi-task learning (QMTL) architecture, specifically, the share-and-specify ansatz, that integrates task-specific operators controlled by quantum labels, enabling the simultaneous and efficient training of multiple assets on the same quantum circuit as well as enabling efficient portfolio representation with logarithmic overhead in the number of qubits. This architecture represents the first of its kind in quantum finance, offering superior predictive power and computational efficiency for multi-asset stock price forecasting. Through extensive experimentation on S\&P 500 data for Apple, Google, Microsoft, and Amazon stocks, we demonstrate that our approach not only outperforms quantum single-task learning (QSTL) models but also effectively captures inter-asset correlations, leading to enhanced prediction accuracy. Our findings highlight the transformative potential of QML in financial applications, paving the way for more advanced, resource-efficient quantum algorithms in stock price prediction and other complex financial modeling tasks.
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