arXiv:2503.02690cs.CEcs.LG2025-03被引 2

用生成模型模拟城市微天气风速,提升低空飞行器安全预测能力

Generative Modeling of Microweather Wind Velocities for Urban Air Mobility

  • 基于生成模型建立区域气象与局部风速的随机映射关系
  • 仅需短期测量数据,即可高精度还原复杂城区风场变化
  • 适合低空飞行器导航、气象风险评估等实际应用场景

为实现安全、可靠且抗天气干扰的城市空中交通(UAM)解决方案,本文提出一种生成式建模方法,用于刻画微天气风速。微天气指高度局域化区域内的气象状况,在城市环境中因风流混沌湍流而尤为复杂。传统方法难以适用于UAM:1)依赖运营空域内永久性风廓线系统进行实地测量不现实;2)高分辨率流体动力学物理模型计算成本过高;3)主流数据驱动方法多为确定性模型,忽略湍流固有的随机变异性,影响UAM可靠性判断。因此亟需提升预测能力,以应对微天气风对小型轻型UAM飞行器带来的独特运行安全风险。本研究提出一种计算高效、捕捉随机变异性、仅需临时测量的微天气风速建模方法。受近期条件生成AI(如文生图)突破启发,采用生成建模技术(去噪扩散概率模型、流匹配、高斯混合模型),学习从区域气象预报到实测局部风速的非线性概率映射。通过一个简单概念验证实验,使用来自某地声学探测与测距(SoDAR)风廓线仪的本地(微)观测数据,以及同一时间段内邻近气象站提供的(宏)预报数据进行训练。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Motivated by the pursuit of safe, reliable, and weather-tolerant urban air mobility (UAM) solutions, this work proposes a generative modeling approach for characterizing microweather wind velocities. Microweather, or the weather conditions in highly localized areas, is particularly complex in urban environments owing to the chaotic and turbulent nature of wind flows. Furthermore, traditional means of assessing local wind fields are not generally viable solutions for UAM applications: 1) field measurements that would rely on permanent wind profiling systems in operational air space are not practical, 2) physics-based models that simulate fluid dynamics at a sufficiently high resolution are not computationally tractable, and 3) data-driven modeling approaches that are largely deterministic ignore the inherent variability in turbulent flows that dictates UAM reliability. Thus, advancements in predictive capabilities are needed to help mitigate the unique operational safety risks that microweather winds pose for smaller, lighter weight UAM aircraft. This work aims to model microweather wind velocities in a manner that is computationally-efficient, captures random variability, and would only require a temporary, rather than permanent, field measurement campaign. Inspired by recent breakthroughs in conditional generative AI such as text-to-image generation, the proposed approach learns a probabilistic macro-to-microweather mapping between regional weather forecasts and measured local wind velocities using generative modeling (denoising diffusion probabilistic models, flow matching, and Gaussian mixture models). A simple proof of concept was implemented using a dataset comprised of local (micro) measurements from a Sonic Detection and Ranging (SoDAR) wind profiler along with (macro) forecast data from a nearby weather station over the same time period.

城市空中交通生成模型风速预测微天气

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