通过融合多个预训练模型实现零样本时间序列预测,保护隐私且效果出色。
SeqFusion: Sequential Fusion of Pre-Trained Models for Zero-Shot Time-Series Forecasting
- 从多个预训练模型中按目标序列特征选优并顺序预测
- 在零样本条件下达到当前最优性能,无需额外训练数据
- 适合需要隐私保护的实时预测场景,如医疗或金融
与传统需大量任务数据训练的时间序列预测方法不同,零样本预测可在无额外训练数据的情况下直接预测未来值。现有零样本方法主要依赖预训练通用模型,其性能常受预训练数据多样性与相关性影响,并可能引发隐私问题。本文提出SeqFusion框架,不依赖多样预训练数据,而是通过顺序融合已收集的多个预训练模型(PTMs)实现零样本预测。基于目标序列的特定时序特征,SeqFusion在共享表示空间中测量目标序列与各PTM的距离,选择最适配的PTM进行序列预测,并融合所有预测结果,仅使用少量数据以保护隐私。每个PTM擅长不同时间模式和任务,使融合更具适应性。实验表明,该方法在零样本预测上达到与先进方法相当的准确率。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Unlike traditional time-series forecasting methods that require extensive in-task data for training, zero-shot forecasting can directly predict future values given a target time series without additional training data. Current zero-shot approaches primarily rely on pre-trained generalized models, with their performance often depending on the variety and relevance of the pre-training data, which can raise privacy concerns. Instead of collecting diverse pre-training data, we introduce SeqFusion in this work, a novel framework that collects and fuses diverse pre-trained models (PTMs) sequentially for zero-shot forecasting. Based on the specific temporal characteristics of the target time series, SeqFusion selects the most suitable PTMs from a batch of pre-collected PTMs, performs sequential predictions, and fuses all the predictions while using minimal data to protect privacy. Each of these PTMs specializes in different temporal patterns and forecasting tasks, allowing SeqFusion to select by measuring distances in a shared representation space of the target time series with each PTM. Experiments demonstrate that SeqFusion achieves competitive accuracy in zero-shot forecasting compared to state-of-the-art methods.
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