用可解释AI预测太空旅游需求,揭示影响决策的关键因素。
Predicting Space Tourism Demand Using Explainable AI
- 构建SpaceNet模型捕捉年龄、收入等多维度数据依赖关系。
- 在美国家庭数据上实现0.82±0.088的平均ROC-AUC表现。
- 可解释性分析助力企业定制营销策略,适合行业规划者使用。
精准预测太空旅游需求对企业发展和客户体验优化至关重要。传统方法难以捕捉个体决策中的复杂因素。本文提出一种符合美国国家标准与技术研究院指南的可解释、可信人工智能框架,设计新型机器学习网络SpaceNet,能够学习数据中广泛范围的依赖关系,并分析年龄、收入、风险偏好等因素间的关联。研究聚焦美国市场,将太空旅行需求分为四类:不出行、月球旅行、亚轨道飞行和轨道飞行。收集了来自多个州和城市的1860条数据点进行实验。结果表明,SpaceNet在分类任务中平均获得0.82±0.088的ROC-AUC值,表现优异。分析显示,旅行价格、年龄、年收入、性别及死亡概率是决定是否出行的关键特征。除需求预测外,通过可解释AI对个体旅行类型决策提供解读,揭示驱动兴趣的深层因素,这是传统分类方法无法实现的。该成果帮助企业在快速演变的市场中优化服务与营销策略。据我们所知,这是首个将可解释与可理解AI框架应用于太空旅游影响因素研究的工作。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Comprehensive forecasts of space tourism demand are crucial for businesses to optimize strategies and customer experiences in this burgeoning industry. Traditional methods struggle to capture the complex factors influencing an individual's decision to travel to space. In this paper, we propose an explainable and trustworthy artificial intelligence framework to address the challenge of predicting space tourism demand by following the National Institute of Standards and Technology guidelines. We develop a novel machine learning network, called SpaceNet, capable of learning wide-range dependencies in data and allowing us to analyze the relationships between various factors such as age, income, and risk tolerance. We investigate space travel demand in the US, categorizing it into four types: no travel, moon travel, suborbital, and orbital travel. To this end, we collected 1860 data points in many states and cities with different ages and then conducted our experiment with the data. From our experiments, the SpaceNet achieves an average ROC-AUC of 0.82 $\pm$ 0.088, indicating strong classification performance. Our investigation demonstrated that travel price, age, annual income, gender, and fatality probability are important features in deciding whether a person wants to travel or not. Beyond demand forecasting, we use explainable AI to provide interpretation for the travel-type decisions of an individual, offering insights into the factors driving interest in space travel, which is not possible with traditional classification methods. This knowledge enables businesses to tailor marketing strategies and optimize service offerings in this rapidly evolving market. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work to implement an explainable and interpretable AI framework for investigating the factors influencing space tourism.
Thank you to arXiv for use of its open access interoperability. PaperDance 不是 arXiv 官方产品;中文卡片由大模型生成,请以原文为准。