arXiv:2503.03262cs.ROcs.AI2025-03被引 60

梳理自动驾驶轨迹预测研究进展,指出现有方法分类与核心挑战。

Trajectory Prediction for Autonomous Driving: Progress, Limitations, and Future Directions

  • 构建了轨迹预测方法的分类体系,理清技术路线差异。
  • 系统总结输入输出、建模特征与预测范式,揭示共性流程。
  • 指出尚未解决的关键问题,适合关注自动驾驶安全的研究者。

随着自动驾驶车辆大规模融入现代交通系统的潜力持续增长,确保其在动态环境中的安全导航成为顺利融合的关键。为保障安全并防止碰撞,自动驾驶车辆必须准确预测周围交通参与者的行为轨迹。过去十年间,学术界和产业界投入大量努力,发展出多种高精度轨迹预测方案。这些多样化的技术路径引发了对方法差异的探讨,以及现有挑战是否已得到充分解决的疑问。本文综述了近期主流轨迹预测方法,提出一种分类框架以系统化归纳现有解决方案。同时,论文概述了预测流程的整体架构,涵盖输入输出模态、建模特征与预测范式。此外,文章探讨了当前活跃的研究方向,回应了相关科学问题,并明确指出尚存的研究空白与挑战。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

As the potential for autonomous vehicles to be integrated on a large scale into modern traffic systems continues to grow, ensuring safe navigation in dynamic environments is crucial for smooth integration. To guarantee safety and prevent collisions, autonomous vehicles must be capable of accurately predicting the trajectories of surrounding traffic agents. Over the past decade, significant efforts from both academia and industry have been dedicated to designing solutions for precise trajectory forecasting. These efforts have produced a diverse range of approaches, raising questions about the differences between these methods and whether trajectory prediction challenges have been fully addressed. This paper reviews a substantial portion of recent trajectory prediction methods proposing a taxonomy to classify existing solutions. A general overview of the prediction pipeline is also provided, covering input and output modalities, modeling features, and prediction paradigms existing in the literature. In addition, the paper discusses active research areas within trajectory prediction, addresses the posed research questions, and highlights the remaining research gaps and challenges.

自动驾驶轨迹预测综述

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