arXiv:2503.04018cs.CV2025-03被引 1

用图注意力网络捕捉车辆交互,提升真实车祸前风险预测准确率。

NsBM-GAT: A Non-stationary Block Maximum and Graph Attention Framework for General Traffic Crash Risk Prediction

  • 基于非平稳极值理论与图注意力网络建模车辆交互行为。
  • 在100组真实车祸前轨迹数据上,同时提升追尾与侧碰预测精度。
  • 适合交通安全管理、智能驾驶系统开发人员参考。

个体车辆的交通事故风险精准预测对提升行车安全至关重要。现有研究面临两大挑战:一是事故前个体车辆数据稀缺,多数模型依赖研究人员设定的危险假设场景,难以反映真实预碰撞状态;二是部分模型基于行车记录仪视频训练,虽能捕捉目标车辆行为,但常缺乏周边车辆运动信息,而车辆间互动对事故发生具有重要影响。为此,本文提出一种新型非平稳极值理论(NsBM-GAT),通过图注意力网络非线性优化协变量函数,引入概率分布以刻画事故的随机性,增强模型可解释性。该方法能有效捕捉目标车辆与多个周围车辆的交互行为,适用于不同驾驶任务的风险预测。模型基于三年无人机采集的100组真实车祸前轨迹数据(包含合流与交织路段)进行训练与测试,实验表明其成功学习到微观级事故前兆,并通过非线性协变量函数拟合出更精确的分布。在测试集上,所提模型在同时预测追尾与侧碰事故方面均优于现有方法。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Accurate prediction of traffic crash risks for individual vehicles is essential for enhancing vehicle safety. While significant attention has been given to traffic crash risk prediction, existing studies face two main challenges: First, due to the scarcity of individual vehicle data before crashes, most models rely on hypothetical scenarios deemed dangerous by researchers. This raises doubts about their applicability to actual pre-crash conditions. Second, some crash risk prediction frameworks were learned from dashcam videos. Although such videos capture the pre-crash behavior of individual vehicles, they often lack critical information about the movements of surrounding vehicles. However, the interaction between a vehicle and its surrounding vehicles is highly influential in crash occurrences. To overcome these challenges, we propose a novel non-stationary extreme value theory (EVT), where the covariate function is optimized in a nonlinear fashion using a graph attention network. The EVT component incorporates the stochastic nature of crashes through probability distribution, which enhances model interpretability. Notably, the nonlinear covariate function enables the model to capture the interactive behavior between the target vehicle and its multiple surrounding vehicles, facilitating crash risk prediction across different driving tasks. We train and test our model using 100 sets of vehicle trajectory data before real crashes, collected via drones over three years from merging and weaving segments. We demonstrate that our model successfully learns micro-level precursors of crashes and fits a more accurate distribution with the aid of the nonlinear covariate function. Our experiments on the testing dataset show that the proposed model outperforms existing models by providing more accurate predictions for both rear-end and sideswipe crashes simultaneously.

车祸预测图神经网络极值理论智能驾驶

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