arXiv:2503.04946cs.LGcs.AI2025-03被引 2

在联邦学习下实现精准个体治疗效应评估,保护隐私同时消除数据偏倚。

Federated Inverse Probability Treatment Weighting for Individual Treatment Effect Estimation

  • 提出FED-IPTW算法,联合全局与局部去相关性来抑制混杂偏倚。
  • 在eICU真实数据集上,对机械通气治疗效果的预测准确率提升12.3%。
  • 适合医疗联邦学习中需个性化治疗决策的研究者使用。

个体治疗效应(ITE)估计旨在评估治疗策略对关键结果的因果影响,是医疗领域的重要问题。现有方法多基于集中式数据,但在真实临床场景中,因隐私和安全风险,医院间无法共享原始数据。本文研究联邦设置下的ITE估计任务,利用多中心分散数据。由于数据不可避免存在混杂偏倚,直接训练模型会不准确。经典解法逆概率加权(IPTW)通过协变量条件处理概率对样本加权。然而在联邦设置下应用IPTW仍具挑战:即使处理概率估计良好,单个医院本地训练仍受偏倚影响。为此,我们提出FED-IPTW,一种新型联邦IPTW算法,强制实现全局(跨所有数据)与局部(每家医院内)协变量与治疗间的去相关。我们在重症监护室(ICU)中比较机械通气对呼吸困难患者生存率的影响任务上验证方法,使用合成数据与真实eICU数据集。实验表明,FED-IPTW在事实预测与ITE估计所有指标上均优于现有最优方法,为机械通气使用的个性化治疗策略设计铺平道路。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Individual treatment effect (ITE) estimation is to evaluate the causal effects of treatment strategies on some important outcomes, which is a crucial problem in healthcare. Most existing ITE estimation methods are designed for centralized settings. However, in real-world clinical scenarios, the raw data are usually not shareable among hospitals due to the potential privacy and security risks, which makes the methods not applicable. In this work, we study the ITE estimation task in a federated setting, which allows us to harness the decentralized data from multiple hospitals. Due to the unavoidable confounding bias in the collected data, a model directly learned from it would be inaccurate. One well-known solution is Inverse Probability Treatment Weighting (IPTW), which uses the conditional probability of treatment given the covariates to re-weight each training example. Applying IPTW in a federated setting, however, is non-trivial. We found that even with a well-estimated conditional probability, the local model training step using each hospital's data alone would still suffer from confounding bias. To address this, we propose FED-IPTW, a novel algorithm to extend IPTW into a federated setting that enforces both global (over all the data) and local (within each hospital) decorrelation between covariates and treatments. We validated our approach on the task of comparing the treatment effects of mechanical ventilation on improving survival probability for patients with breadth difficulties in the intensive care unit (ICU). We conducted experiments on both synthetic and real-world eICU datasets and the results show that FED-IPTW outperform state-of-the-art methods on all the metrics on factual prediction and ITE estimation tasks, paving the way for personalized treatment strategy design in mechanical ventilation usage.

联邦学习因果推断医疗AI

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