arXiv:2503.05628cs.CYcs.AI2025-03被引 23

为应对超智能威胁,提出以相互破坏为威慑的AI战略框架。

Superintelligence Strategy: Expert Version

  • 用类似核威慑的互毁机制制约各国对超智能的单边争夺
  • 指出破坏对手AI项目比建设更易实现,已形成实际战略格局
  • 适合关注全球科技安全与地缘政治的政策制定者参考

人工智能的快速进展正重塑国家安全格局。不稳定的AI发展可能打破权力平衡,增加大国冲突风险;而具备攻击能力的AI黑客与病毒学家广泛扩散,则会降低恐怖分子引发灾难的门槛。如今,多数AI研究者预计超智能——在几乎所有认知任务上远超人类的智能——将到来。如同各国曾制定核战略以确保生存,现在亟需一套连贯的超智能战略来应对变革期。本文提出“相互保证AI故障”(MAIM)概念:任何国家试图通过激进手段获取单边AI主导地位,都将遭到对手的预防性破坏。由于破坏一个高风险的AI项目相对容易(如网络攻击或对数据中心的物理打击),这一威慑机制实际上已成现实。与此同时,各国可通过AI提升经济与军事实力增强竞争力,并防止武器化AI技术向非国家行为体扩散。三者结合——威慑、防扩散、竞争力——构成了未来应对超智能的完整战略框架。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Rapid advances in AI are beginning to reshape national security. Destabilizing AI developments could rupture the balance of power and raise the odds of great-power conflict, while widespread proliferation of capable AI hackers and virologists would lower barriers for rogue actors to cause catastrophe. Superintelligence -- AI vastly better than humans at nearly all cognitive tasks -- is now anticipated by AI researchers. Just as nations once developed nuclear strategies to secure their survival, we now need a coherent superintelligence strategy to navigate a new period of transformative change. We introduce the concept of Mutual Assured AI Malfunction (MAIM): a deterrence regime resembling nuclear mutual assured destruction (MAD) where any state's aggressive bid for unilateral AI dominance is met with preventive sabotage by rivals. Given the relative ease of sabotaging a destabilizing AI project -- through interventions ranging from covert cyberattacks to potential kinetic strikes on datacenters -- MAIM already describes the strategic picture AI superpowers find themselves in. Alongside this, states can increase their competitiveness by bolstering their economies and militaries through AI, and they can engage in nonproliferation to rogue actors to keep weaponizable AI capabilities out of their hands. Taken together, the three-part framework of deterrence, nonproliferation, and competitiveness outlines a robust strategy to superintelligence in the years ahead.

超智能战略威慑AI安全

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