用AI分析西班牙封城期间个人特征对心理状态的影响
Discovering the influence of personal features in psychological processes using Artificial Intelligence techniques: the case of COVID19 lockdown in Spain
- 通过机器学习分类器识别不同心理状态群体
- 模型准确率超90%,健康状况影响最显著
- 适合关注心理健康与政策制定的研究者
2019年底,中国报告了一种新型冠状病毒爆发,引发全球新冠疫情。西班牙首例病例于2020年1月下旬被发现,至3月中旬感染人数超过5,000。3月,西班牙政府启动全国封锁以控制病毒传播。尽管隔离措施必要,但对心理与社会经济造成重大挑战,尤其影响弱势群体。理解封城期间的心理影响及影响因素,对制定未来公共卫生政策至关重要。本研究利用人工智能技术分析个人、社会经济、整体健康与居住条件等因素在封锁期间对心理状态的影响。通过在线问卷收集数据,采用两种工作流处理,每种包含三个阶段:首先基于心理评估将个体分类,可结合无监督学习;其次训练多种机器学习分类器区分不同群体;最后进行特征重要性分析,识别关键变量。所用模型表现优异,准确率超过80%,多数情况达90%以上,随机森林、决策树和支持向量机表现最佳。敏感性和特异性分析显示,模型在各类心理状况下均表现良好,其中健康影响子集可靠性最高。对于识别脆弱性,模型准确率超90%,仅在使用居住环境与经济状况特征时对低脆弱个体表现略低。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
At the end of 2019, an outbreak of a novel coronavirus was reported in China, leading to the COVID-19 pandemic. In Spain, the first cases were detected in late January 2020, and by mid-March, infections had surpassed 5,000. On March the Spanish government started a nationwide lockdown to contain the spread of the virus. While isolation measures were necessary, they posed significant psychological and socioeconomic challenges, particularly for vulnerable populations. Understanding the psychological impact of lockdown and the factors influencing mental health is crucial for informing future public health policies. This study analyzes the influence of personal, socioeconomic, general health and living condition factors on psychological states during lockdown using AI techniques. A dataset collected through an online questionnaire was processed using two workflows, each structured into three stages. First, individuals were categorized based on psychological assessments, either directly or in combination with unsupervised learning techniques. Second, various Machine Learning classifiers were trained to distinguish between the identified groups. Finally, feature importance analysis was conducted to identify the most influential variables related to different psychological conditions. The evaluated models demonstrated strong performance, with accuracy exceeding 80% and often surpassing 90%, particularly for Random Forest, Decision Trees, and Support Vector Machines. Sensitivity and specificity analyses revealed that models performed well across different psychological conditions, with the health impacts subset showing the highest reliability. For diagnosing vulnerability, models achieved over 90% accuracy, except for less vulnerable individuals using living environment and economic status features, where performance was slightly lower.
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