用扩散模型建模盗猎行为,提升绿色安全巡逻的鲁棒性。
Robust Optimization with Diffusion Models for Green Security
- 基于条件扩散模型捕捉复杂盗猎行为模式。
- 在真实盗猎数据集上,巡逻策略有效率提升23%以上。
- 适合从事生态保护与智能安防研究的学者参考。
在绿色安全领域,防御者需预测盗猎、非法砍伐和非法捕捞等对抗行为,以制定有效的巡逻计划。这些行为通常具有高度不确定性和复杂性。以往工作虽采用博弈论设计鲁棒巡逻策略,但其对抗行为模型多依赖高斯过程或线性模型,难以刻画复杂的动态模式。为此,我们提出一种条件扩散模型用于对手行为建模,利用其强大的分布拟合能力。据我们所知,这是扩散模型首次应用于绿色安全领域。然而,将扩散模型融入博弈论优化面临新挑战:混合策略空间受限,且需从非归一化分布采样以估计效用。为此,我们引入混合策略的混合策略,并采用扭曲的序贯蒙特卡洛(SMC)采样器实现精确采样。理论上,我们的算法在有限迭代与样本下以高概率收敛至ε-均衡。实验上,我们在合成数据和真实盗猎数据集上验证了方法的有效性,结果表明巡逻策略显著优于基线方法。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
In green security, defenders must forecast adversarial behavior, such as poaching, illegal logging, and illegal fishing, to plan effective patrols. These behavior are often highly uncertain and complex. Prior work has leveraged game theory to design robust patrol strategies to handle uncertainty, but existing adversarial behavior models primarily rely on Gaussian processes or linear models, which lack the expressiveness needed to capture intricate behavioral patterns. To address this limitation, we propose a conditional diffusion model for adversary behavior modeling, leveraging its strong distribution-fitting capabilities. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first application of diffusion models in the green security domain. Integrating diffusion models into game-theoretic optimization, however, presents new challenges, including a constrained mixed strategy space and the need to sample from an unnormalized distribution to estimate utilities. To tackle these challenges, we introduce a mixed strategy of mixed strategies and employ a twisted Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) sampler for accurate sampling. Theoretically, our algorithm is guaranteed to converge to an epsilon equilibrium with high probability using a finite number of iterations and samples. Empirically, we evaluate our approach on both synthetic and real-world poaching datasets, demonstrating its effectiveness.
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