arXiv:2503.05734cs.CYcs.AI2025-03被引 2

用文本和成绩数据预测学生行为变化,提前发现高危学生。

Modeling Behavior Change for Multi-model At-Risk Students Early Prediction (extended version)

  • 融合文本评语与成绩数据,通过双编码器处理多模态信息。
  • 识别关键行为转折点,动态加权提升预测准确率70%-75%。
  • 适合教育机构做早期干预,可迁移至不同风险定义场景。

在教育领域,及时识别可能辍学的学生对有效干预、改善学业成果和学生福祉至关重要。教育数据通常来自作业、成绩和出勤记录等多元来源,但现有研究多依赖在线学习数据并仅提取量化特征,导致原始信息严重丢失。此外,当前模型主要基于稳定差表现的简单离散行为模式,难以捕捉学生行为的复杂连续性与非线性变化。本文提出一种创新预测模型——多模态变点检测(MCPD),利用中学阶段的教师评语文本与成绩数值数据。模型采用独立编码器分别处理两类数据,并融合编码特征;进一步通过变点检测模块定位关键行为转折点,以简单注意力机制将这些转折点作为动态权重融入分析。实验表明,该模型准确率达70%-75%,平均优于基线算法约5-10%。同时,该算法具备一定可迁移性,在不同“高危”定义下调整重训后仍保持高精度,展现出广泛应用潜力。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

In the educational domain, identifying students at risk of dropping out is essential for allowing educators to intervene effectively, improving both academic outcomes and overall student well-being. Data in educational settings often originate from diverse sources, such as assignments, grades, and attendance records. However, most existing research relies on online learning data and just extracting the quantitative features. While quantification eases processing, it also leads to a significant loss of original information. Moreover, current models primarily identify students with consistently poor performance through simple and discrete behavioural patterns, failing to capture the complex continuity and non-linear changes in student behaviour. We have developed an innovative prediction model, Multimodal- ChangePoint Detection (MCPD), utilizing the textual teacher remark data and numerical grade data from middle schools. Our model achieves a highly integrated and intelligent analysis by using independent encoders to process two data types, fusing the encoded feature. The model further refines its analysis by leveraging a changepoint detection module to pinpoint crucial behavioral changes, which are integrated as dynamic weights through a simple attention mechanism. Experimental validations indicate that our model achieves an accuracy range of 70- 75%, with an average outperforming baseline algorithms by approximately 5-10%. Additionally, our algorithm demonstrates a certain degree of transferability, maintaining high accuracy when adjusted and retrained with different definitions of at-risk, proving its broad applicability.

行为预测多模态教育AI变点检测

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