识别能源转型中的致命风险与稳健政策，提升应对意外事件的能力。
Identifying Dealbreakers and Robust Policies for the Energy Transition Amid Unexpected Events
- 假设完全预见下评估突发事件影响，定位导致转型不可行的关键瓶颈。
- 在预见有限条件下测试政策鲁棒性，发现可再生能源加速部署最稳健。
- 方法可迁移至其他国家，助力制定抗风险的能源转型策略。
能源进口中断、社会接受度反弹以及新技术发展失败等意外事件常被忽视，却可能危及能源转型进程。本文提出一种方法，用于探索大规模全能源系统中的意外事件并评估其对转型路径的影响。首先，在‘完全预见’假设下评估事件影响，识别出使转型不可行的‘致命因素’；其次，在‘有限预见’条件下评估早期决策的鲁棒性及其管理成本。以比利时为例，研究发现2050年缺乏电燃料进口是主要致命因素，而加速可再生能源部署是最具鲁棒性的政策。该方法具有可迁移性，有助于政策制定者识别关键风险并设计稳健的能源转型方案。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Disruptions in energy imports, backlash in social acceptance, and novel technologies failing to develop are unexpected events that are often overlooked in energy planning, despite their ability to jeopardize the energy transition. We propose a method to explore unexpected events and assess their impact on the transition pathway of a large-scale whole-energy system. First, we evaluate unexpected events assuming "perfect foresight", where decision-makers can anticipate such events in advance. This allows us to identify dealbreakers, i.e., conditions that make the transition infeasible. Then, we assess the events under "limited foresight" to evaluate the robustness of early-stage decisions against unforeseen unexpected events and the costs associated with managing them. A case study for Belgium demonstrates that a lack of electrofuel imports in 2050 is the main dealbreaker, while accelerating the deployment of renewables is the most robust policy. Our transferable method can help policymakers identify key dealbreakers and devise robust energy transition policies.
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