arXiv:2503.06392cs.LGcs.AI2025-03被引 1

用复杂决策模型提升消费行为生成质量,让模拟数据更真实可信。

EPR-GAIL: An EPR-Enhanced Hierarchical Imitation Learning Framework to Simulate Complex User Consumption Behaviors

  • 将用户行为建模为探索-偏好-购买的分层决策过程
  • 生成数据在真实度上比顶尖基线高19%以上
  • 适合用于推荐系统与销售预测等实际场景

用户消费行为数据记录了个体在各类店铺的在线消费历史,广泛应用于店铺推荐、选址和销售预测。然而,其价值受限于数据完整性不足及应用场景变化。因此,通过模拟复杂用户消费行为生成高质量序列数据至关重要。现有两类序列生成方法各有局限:基于模型的方法因简化假设难以刻画复杂的消费决策过程;数据驱动方法虽模仿真实数据,却易受噪声、未观测行为和动态决策空间影响。本文提出EPR-GAIL框架,将探索与偏好回报(EPR)模型融入生成对抗模仿学习(GAIL),以增强数据驱动方法的保真度与可信度。核心思想是将用户消费行为视为包含购买、探索和偏好决策的复杂EPR过程。具体而言,生成器设计分层策略函数实现EPR决策过程,并利用EPR模型的概率分布指导判别器的奖励函数。在两个真实平台消费数据集上的实验表明,EPR-GAIL在数据保真度上优于最优基线超过19%。此外,生成数据可使销售预测与选址推荐性能分别提升35.29%和11.19%,验证其在实际应用中的优势。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

User consumption behavior data, which records individuals' online spending history at various types of stores, has been widely used in various applications, such as store recommendation, site selection, and sale forecasting. However, its high worth is limited due to deficiencies in data comprehensiveness and changes of application scenarios. Thus, generating high-quality sequential consumption data by simulating complex user consumption behaviors is of great importance to real-world applications. Two branches of existing sequence generation methods are both limited in quality. Model-based methods with simplified assumptions fail to model the complex decision process of user consumption, while data-driven methods that emulate real-world data are prone to noises, unobserved behaviors, and dynamic decision space. In this work, we propose to enhance the fidelity and trustworthiness of the data-driven Generative Adversarial Imitation Learning (GAIL) method by blending it with the Exploration and Preferential Return EPR model . The core idea of our EPR-GAIL framework is to model user consumption behaviors as a complex EPR decision process, which consists of purchase, exploration, and preference decisions. Specifically, we design the hierarchical policy function in the generator as a realization of the EPR decision process and employ the probability distributions of the EPR model to guide the reward function in the discriminator. Extensive experiments on two real-world datasets of user consumption behaviors on an online platform demonstrate that the EPR-GAIL framework outperforms the best state-of-the-art baseline by over 19\% in terms of data fidelity. Furthermore, the generated consumption behavior data can improve the performance of sale prediction and location recommendation by up to 35.29% and 11.19%, respectively, validating its advantage for practical applications.

行为模拟生成模型消费预测

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