arXiv:2503.07649cs.LGcs.AI2025-03NeurIPS被引 44

TS-RAG通过检索增强生成,让时间序列模型零样本预测更准更可解释。

TS-RAG: Retrieval-Augmented Generation based Time Series Foundation Models are Stronger Zero-Shot Forecaster

  • 用预训练编码器从知识库中检索相关时间片段,增强输入上下文。
  • 在7个公开数据集上零样本预测精度领先现有模型最高6.84%。
  • 无需微调即可适应新数据,适合跨领域时间序列预测场景。

大语言模型(LLMs)和基础模型(FMs)最近被广泛应用于时间序列预测任务。尽管微调能实现领域适配,但通常难以在多样且未见过的数据集上泛化。现有时间序列基础模型(TSFMs)仍面临非平稳动态和分布偏移的挑战,主要源于缺乏有效的适应机制。为此,我们提出TS-RAG,一种基于检索增强生成的时间序列基础模型框架,提升了TSFMs的泛化能力与可解释性。具体而言,TS-RAG利用预训练时间序列编码器从专用知识库中检索语义相关的片段,丰富输入查询的上下文表征。此外,我们提出自适应检索混合模块(ARM),动态融合检索到的模式与TSFM内部表示,提升预测精度而无需任务特定微调。在七个公开基准数据集上的全面实验表明,TS-RAG实现了最先进的零样本预测性能,在多个领域上相较现有TSFMs最高提升6.84%,同时具备良好的可解释性。代码与数据已开源:https://github.com/UConn-DSIS/TS-RAG。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Large Language Models (LLMs) and Foundation Models (FMs) have recently become prevalent for time series forecasting tasks. While fine-tuning LLMs enables domain adaptation, they often struggle to generalize across diverse and unseen datasets. Moreover, existing Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) still face challenges in handling non-stationary dynamics and distribution shifts, largely due to the lack of effective mechanisms for adaptation. To this end, we present TS-RAG, a retrieval-augmented generation framework for time series forecasting that enhances the generalization and interpretability of TSFMs. Specifically, TS-RAG leverages pre-trained time series encoders to retrieve semantically relevant segments from a dedicated knowledge base, enriching the contextual representation of the input query. Furthermore, we propose an Adaptive Retrieval Mixer (ARM) module that dynamically fuses the retrieved patterns with the TSFM's internal representation, improving forecasting accuracy without requiring task-specific fine-tuning. Thorough empirical studies on seven public benchmark datasets demonstrate that TS-RAG achieves state-of-the-art zero-shot forecasting performance, outperforming the existing TSFMs by up to 6.84% across diverse domains while also providing desirable interpretability. Our code and data are available at: https://github.com/UConn-DSIS/TS-RAG

时间序列零样本检索增强基础模型

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