arXiv:2503.08002cs.LGcs.CY2025-03被引 19

用可解释模型预测大学生心理健康,准确率达91%。

Predicting and Understanding College Student Mental Health with Interpretable Machine Learning

  • 构建分层模型,通过五类行为标签连接原始数据与心理状态
  • 在五年纵向数据上实现91%预测准确率,远超基线的60-70%
  • 生成个性化可读洞察,适合开发精准干预方案

大学生心理健康问题已达到严峻水平,严重影响学业表现与整体福祉。由于需大规模纵向数据、现有模型多为黑箱且仅提供群体层面的概括性结论,预测与理解大学生心理健康状况面临挑战。本文提出 I-HOPE——首个用于个性化心理健康的可解释分层模型。该模型采用两阶段结构,通过五个定义的行为类别作为交互标签,将原始行为特征与心理健康状态相连接。我们在《大学经历研究》(College Experience Study)数据集上评估 I-HOPE,该数据集历时五年,涵盖疫情前后两个阶段的移动传感数据。I-HOPE 实现了 91% 的预测准确率,显著高于基线方法的 60-70%。此外,I-HOPE 将复杂模式提炼为可解释的个体化洞察,为未来定制化干预措施的发展提供了支持。代码已公开于 https://github.com/roycmeghna/I-HOPE。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Mental health issues among college students have reached critical levels, significantly impacting academic performance and overall wellbeing. Predicting and understanding mental health status among college students is challenging due to three main factors: the necessity for large-scale longitudinal datasets, the prevalence of black-box machine learning models lacking transparency, and the tendency of existing approaches to provide aggregated insights at the population level rather than individualized understanding. To tackle these challenges, this paper presents I-HOPE, the first Interpretable Hierarchical mOdel for Personalized mEntal health prediction. I-HOPE is a two-stage hierarchical model that connects raw behavioral features to mental health status through five defined behavioral categories as interaction labels. We evaluate I-HOPE on the College Experience Study, the longest longitudinal mobile sensing dataset. This dataset spans five years and captures data from both pre-pandemic periods and the COVID-19 pandemic. I-HOPE achieves a prediction accuracy of 91%, significantly surpassing the 60-70% accuracy of baseline methods. In addition, I-HOPE distills complex patterns into interpretable and individualized insights, enabling the future development of tailored interventions and improving mental health support. The code is available at https://github.com/roycmeghna/I-HOPE.

心理健康可解释模型个性化预测

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