用神经网络检测时间序列中的突变点,能准确定位变化位置。
Neural Network-Based Change Point Detection for Large-Scale Time-Evolving Data
- 用前馈神经网络拟合数据,通过测试误差变化找突变点
- 在依赖性数据下仍能一致估计突变点数量和位置
- 适合处理大规模时变数据,对参数选择有实用指导
本文研究多变量时变数据中突变点的检测与定位问题。传统方法多针对简单参数模型,而本文采用前馈神经网络建模数据,提出两步检测策略:先在指定窗口训练网络并校准测试误差,再在滑动窗口中利用误差函数识别突变点;一旦发现突变点,重复该过程直至所有突变点被识别。该方法在数据生成过程存在时间依赖性时,仍能一致估计突变点的数量与位置。通过合成数据验证了算法有效性,提供了实际调参建议;真实数据实验也展示了其适用性。尽管检测策略可适配多种神经网络结构,但理论保证仅针对前馈神经网络架构。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
The paper studies the problem of detecting and locating change points in multivariate time-evolving data. The problem has a long history in statistics and signal processing and various algorithms have been developed primarily for simple parametric models. In this work, we focus on modeling the data through feed-forward neural networks and develop a detection strategy based on the following two-step procedure. In the first step, the neural network is trained over a prespecified window of the data, and its test error function is calibrated over another prespecified window. Then, the test error function is used over a moving window to identify the change point. Once a change point is detected, the procedure involving these two steps is repeated until all change points are identified. The proposed strategy yields consistent estimates for both the number and the locations of the change points under temporal dependence of the data-generating process. The effectiveness of the proposed strategy is illustrated on synthetic data sets that provide insights on how to select in practice tuning parameters of the algorithm and in real data sets. Finally, we note that although the detection strategy is general and can work with different neural network architectures, the theoretical guarantees provided are specific to feed-forward neural architectures.
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