arXiv:2503.09656cs.LGcs.CL2025-03被引 6

用时间模式和语义增强LLM,提升时序预测准确率

LLM-PS: Empowering Large Language Models for Time Series Forecasting with Temporal Patterns and Semantics

  • 引入多尺度卷积网络捕捉长短趋势,结合时序语义提取
  • 在短/长期预测及少样本场景下均达当前最佳性能
  • 适合需要高精度时序建模的金融、医疗等领域应用

时序预测在金融规划、健康监测等实际场景中至关重要。近年来研究发现,大型语言模型凭借其上下文建模能力,在时序预测中具有巨大潜力。然而现有基于LLM的方法表现不佳,因其忽视了时序数据的本质特性——语义稀疏且包含独特的时间模式。不同于LLM预训练所用文本数据,时序数据需同时捕捉动态变化与深层语义。为此,我们提出LLM-PS,通过学习时序数据的基本模式(Patterns)与有意义的语义(Semantics)来增强LLM的时序建模能力。该方法引入一种多尺度卷积神经网络,有效捕捉短期波动与长期趋势;同时设计时间转文本模块,从连续时间区间而非孤立点中提取有价值语义。融合模式与语义后,LLM-PS能深入理解时间依赖关系,实现精准预测。大量实验表明,其在短/长期预测任务以及少样本、零样本设置下均达到最优性能。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Time Series Forecasting (TSF) is critical in many real-world domains like financial planning and health monitoring. Recent studies have revealed that Large Language Models (LLMs), with their powerful in-contextual modeling capabilities, hold significant potential for TSF. However, existing LLM-based methods usually perform suboptimally because they neglect the inherent characteristics of time series data. Unlike the textual data used in LLM pre-training, the time series data is semantically sparse and comprises distinctive temporal patterns. To address this problem, we propose LLM-PS to empower the LLM for TSF by learning the fundamental \textit{Patterns} and meaningful \textit{Semantics} from time series data. Our LLM-PS incorporates a new multi-scale convolutional neural network adept at capturing both short-term fluctuations and long-term trends within the time series. Meanwhile, we introduce a time-to-text module for extracting valuable semantics across continuous time intervals rather than isolated time points. By integrating these patterns and semantics, LLM-PS effectively models temporal dependencies, enabling a deep comprehension of time series and delivering accurate forecasts. Intensive experimental results demonstrate that LLM-PS achieves state-of-the-art performance in both short- and long-term forecasting tasks, as well as in few- and zero-shot settings.

时序预测大模型语义建模

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