用图神经网络建模选择行为中的社交影响,提升预测力且保持可解释性。
Designing Graph Convolutional Neural Networks for Discrete Choice with Network Effects
- 设计图卷积网络捕捉个体选择中同伴影响的网络效应
- 在纽约通勤数据和美国选举数据上表现优于传统模型
- 兼顾高预测性能与经济指标可解释性,适合行为分析场景
我们提出一种新型图卷积神经网络架构,将网络效应引入离散选择问题,相比标准离散选择模型预测性能更高,同时保持比通用深度学习模型更强的可解释性。离散选择模型用于研究个体决策,即个体从一组离散选项中选择效用最高的方案。直观上,个体对某选项的效用取决于其个人偏好、选项属性以及同伴对该选项的评价或先前选择。然而,多数应用忽略同伴影响,而考虑网络效应的模型往往缺乏近年发展起来的离散选择方法(如深度学习)的灵活性与预测能力。我们采用新型图卷积神经网络建模离散选择中的网络效应,在纽约市工作通勤数据(包含各交通方式的出行时间和成本)及2016年美国按县汇总的选举数据上进行评估。后一数据集具有高度不平衡类别。得益于模型可解释性,可估计纽约市出行时间节约的价值等关键经济指标。最后,我们将本架构的预测性能与行为洞察,与传统离散选择模型和通用深度学习模型进行了对比。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
We introduce a novel model architecture that incorporates network effects into discrete choice problems, achieving higher predictive performance than standard discrete choice models while offering greater interpretability than general-purpose flexible model classes. Econometric discrete choice models aid in studying individual decision-making, where agents select the option with the highest reward from a discrete set of alternatives. Intuitively, the utility an individual derives from a particular choice depends on their personal preferences and characteristics, the attributes of the alternative, and the value their peers assign to that alternative or their previous choices. However, most applications ignore peer influence, and models that do consider peer or network effects often lack the flexibility and predictive performance of recently developed approaches to discrete choice, such as deep learning. We propose a novel graph convolutional neural network architecture to model network effects in discrete choices, achieving higher predictive performance than standard discrete choice models while retaining the interpretability necessary for inference--a quality often lacking in general-purpose deep learning architectures. We evaluate our architecture using revealed commuting choice data, extended with travel times and trip costs for each travel mode for work-related trips in New York City, as well as 2016 U.S. election data aggregated by county, to test its performance on datasets with highly imbalanced classes. Given the interpretability of our models, we can estimate relevant economic metrics, such as the value of travel time savings in New York City. Finally, we compare the predictive performance and behavioral insights from our architecture to those derived from traditional discrete choice and general-purpose deep learning models.
Thank you to arXiv for use of its open access interoperability. PaperDance 不是 arXiv 官方产品;中文卡片由大模型生成,请以原文为准。