预测社会事件时，其本身会改变结果，但依然可高效准确预测。
Revisiting the Predictability of Performative, Social Events
- 基于表演性预测与结果不可区分性理论，构建不受影响的预测方法。
- 无论预测如何改变数据，都能实现高效且准确的预测。
- 揭示了传统预测目标的局限性，适合关注社会动态建模的研究者。
社会预测并非被动描述未来，而是主动塑造未来；它们影响行为并改变个体预期，从而影响预测结果的发生概率。这一问题自20世纪以来由默顿、莫根斯特恩、西蒙等人提出，被视为社会科学方法论的核心议题。本文结合表演性预测与结果不可区分性等现代思想，提出一个对这一古老问题的当代解答：无论预测如何影响数据，总能以高效方式实现准确的社会事件预测。然而，尽管可实现，这些预测往往不具实际价值，揭示了以往理想化预测目标的局限性。文章最后探讨了多个可能的未来研究方向。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Social predictions do not passively describe the future; they actively shape it. They inform actions and change individual expectations in ways that influence the likelihood of the predicted outcome. Given these dynamics, to what extent can social events be predicted? This question was discussed throughout the 20th century by authors like Merton, Morgenstern, Simon, and others who considered it a central issue in social science methodology. In this work, we provide a modern answer to this old problem. Using recent ideas from performative prediction and outcome indistinguishability, we establish that one can always efficiently predict social events accurately, regardless of how predictions influence data. While achievable, we also show that these predictions are often undesirable, highlighting the limitations of previous desiderata. We end with a discussion of various avenues forward.
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