arXiv:2503.11870cs.AIcs.LG2025-03ICLR被引 6

提出可实现性概念,证明反事实样本可物理实验获取

Counterfactual Realizability

  • 定义反事实可实现性:在物理约束下能否真实采样
  • 给出完整算法,判断任意反事实分布是否可实现
  • 在公平性和强化学习中证明反事实策略最优

通常认为现实环境中只能获取观测和干预分布(对应Pearl因果层级的第1、2层),第3层反事实分布因定义不可达。然而,Bareinboim、Forney和Pearl(2015)提出一种直接从反事实分布采样的方法,留下疑问:哪些反事实量可通过物理实验直接估计?本文引入可实现性正式定义——即能否从某分布中抽样,并开发出完整算法,判断在时间不可逆、同一单元无法重复不同干预等基本物理约束下,任意反事实分布是否可实现。通过因果公平性和因果强化学习中的案例展示该框架对反事实数据收集的含义:相较于传统观测或干预策略,反事实策略在理论上严格更优。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

It is commonly believed that, in a real-world environment, samples can only be drawn from observational and interventional distributions, corresponding to Layers 1 and 2 of the Pearl Causal Hierarchy. Layer 3, representing counterfactual distributions, is believed to be inaccessible by definition. However, Bareinboim, Forney, and Pearl (2015) introduced a procedure that allows an agent to sample directly from a counterfactual distribution, leaving open the question of what other counterfactual quantities can be estimated directly via physical experimentation. We resolve this by introducing a formal definition of realizability, the ability to draw samples from a distribution, and then developing a complete algorithm to determine whether an arbitrary counterfactual distribution is realizable given fundamental physical constraints, such as the inability to go back in time and subject the same unit to a different experimental condition. We illustrate the implications of this new framework for counterfactual data collection using motivating examples from causal fairness and causal reinforcement learning. While the baseline approach in these motivating settings typically follows an interventional or observational strategy, we show that a counterfactual strategy provably dominates both.

反事实因果推断可实现性强化学习

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