arXiv:2503.11899cs.LGeess.SP2025-03被引 2

用傅里叶变换捕捉多尺度动态,提升长期预测稳定性与可信度。

StFT: Spatio-temporal Fourier Transformer for Long-term Dynamics Prediction

  • 分路径融合频域与时空特征,逐层学习不同尺度系统演化
  • 在等离子体、流体、大气数据集上长期预测误差降低27%-41%
  • 引入生成式残差修正,同时实现精度提升与不确定性量化

模拟多尺度、多物理系统的长期动态是科学与工程中理解复杂现象的重大挑战。其难点在于尺度间复杂交互及多种物理过程在偏微分方程中通过耦合非线性项共同决定多场演化。神经算子虽在短时预测中展现潜力,但长期高保真预测的稳定性与不确定性量化仍属未解难题,常导致误差快速累积,尤其在涉及多阶动态的系统中。为此,本文提出自回归时空傅里叶变换器(StFT),每个变换块通过双路径结构,分别学习不同尺度的系统动态,结合频域与时空表示。通过结构化层级的 extit{StFT}块设计,模型显式捕获宏观与微观空间尺度的内在动态。此外,引入生成式残差修正机制,在时间维度上学习概率性修正并量化预测不确定性,显著提升长期概率预测的准确性和可靠性。在三个基准数据集(等离子体、流体、大气动力学)上的评估表明,本方法优于现有先进机器学习模型。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Simulating the long-term dynamics of multi-scale and multi-physics systems poses a significant challenge in understanding complex phenomena across science and engineering. The complexity arises from the intricate interactions between scales and the interplay of diverse physical processes, which manifest in PDEs through coupled, nonlinear terms that govern the evolution of multiple physical fields across scales. Neural operators have shown potential in short-term prediction of such complex spatio-temporal dynamics; however, achieving stable high-fidelity predictions and providing robust uncertainty quantification over extended time horizons remains an open and unsolved area of research. These limitations often lead to stability degradation with rapid error accumulation, particularly in long-term forecasting of systems characterized by multi-scale behaviors involving dynamics of different orders. To address these challenges, we propose an autoregressive Spatio-temporal Fourier Transformer (StFT), in which each transformer block is designed to learn the system dynamics at a distinct scale through a dual-path architecture that integrates frequency-domain and spatio-temporal representations. By leveraging a structured hierarchy of \ours blocks, the resulting model explicitly captures the underlying dynamics across both macro- and micro- spatial scales. Furthermore, a generative residual correction mechanism is introduced to learn a probabilistic refinement temporally while simultaneously quantifying prediction uncertainties, enhancing both the accuracy and reliability of long-term probabilistic forecasting. Evaluations conducted on three benchmark datasets (plasma, fluid, and atmospheric dynamics) demonstrate the advantages of our approach over state-of-the-art ML methods.

时空建模傅里叶变换长期预测不确定性量化

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