用CNN-LSTM+优化算法预测疫情,比传统方法更准
Epidemic Forecasting with a Hybrid Deep Learning Method Using CNN-LSTM With WOA-GWO Parameter Optimization: Global COVID-19 Case Study
- 融合CNN提取空间特征、LSTM捕捉时间规律
- 用鲸鱼-灰狼算法调参,降低预测误差
- 在24国数据上验证,适合公共卫生决策
有效的流行病建模对管理公共卫生危机至关重要,需具备预测疾病传播和优化资源配置的能力。本研究提出一种新型深度学习框架,用于传染病时间序列预测,并以新冠疫情数据为关键案例。该混合方法结合卷积神经网络(CNN)与长短期记忆网络(LSTM),分别捕获不同区域间疾病传播的空间特征与时间动态,实现高精度且可适应的预测。为最大化模型性能,采用鲸鱼优化算法(WOA)与灰狼优化算法(GWO)联合调优超参数,如学习率、批大小和训练轮数,提升效率与准确率。模型应用于六大洲24个国家的新冠确诊病例数据,显著优于经典基准模型(如ARIMA和独立LSTM),预测误差(如均方根误差)有统计学意义的降低。该框架展现出作为通用疫情趋势预测工具的潜力,可为历史疫情(如新冠疫情)及未来爆发提供资源规划与决策支持。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Effective epidemic modeling is essential for managing public health crises, requiring robust methods to predict disease spread and optimize resource allocation. This study introduces a novel deep learning framework that advances time series forecasting for infectious diseases, with its application to COVID 19 data as a critical case study. Our hybrid approach integrates Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) and Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) models to capture spatial and temporal dynamics of disease transmission across diverse regions. The CNN extracts spatial features from raw epidemiological data, while the LSTM models temporal patterns, yielding precise and adaptable predictions. To maximize performance, we employ a hybrid optimization strategy combining the Whale Optimization Algorithm (WOA) and Gray Wolf Optimization (GWO) to fine tune hyperparameters, such as learning rates, batch sizes, and training epochs enhancing model efficiency and accuracy. Applied to COVID 19 case data from 24 countries across six continents, our method outperforms established benchmarks, including ARIMA and standalone LSTM models, with statistically significant gains in predictive accuracy (e.g., reduced RMSE). This framework demonstrates its potential as a versatile method for forecasting epidemic trends, offering insights for resource planning and decision making in both historical contexts, like the COVID 19 pandemic, and future outbreaks.
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