用提升法改进神经网络不确定性估计,提高医学等高风险场景的可靠性
Quantification of Uncertainties in Probabilistic Deep Neural Network by Implementing Boosting of Variational Inference
- 通过迭代构建密度混合体,扩展变分推断的近似能力
- 相比传统方法,准确率提升约5%,且不确定性评估更优
- 适合对模型可信度要求高的领域,如医疗诊断
现代神经网络虽在大规模数据上表现优异,但在小数据集上易过拟合,且缺乏可解释性。概率神经网络通过权重分布而非点估计来估算不确定性,但标准变分推断常依赖单一密度近似,导致后验估计不佳。本文提出增强型贝叶斯神经网络(BBNN),采用提升式变分推断(BVI)迭代构建密度混合体,扩大近似族表达能力,从而获得更优的后验逼近,提升泛化性能与不确定性量化。尽管计算复杂度增加,实验表明该方法在准确率上比传统网络提升约5%,显著改善不确定性估计,尤其适用于医疗诊断等高风险应用。结果验证了基于混合变分族逼近后验的有效性,推动了概率深度学习的发展。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Modern neural network architectures have achieved remarkable accuracies but remain highly dependent on their training data, often lacking interpretability in their learned mappings. While effective on large datasets, they tend to overfit on smaller ones. Probabilistic neural networks, such as those utilizing variational inference, address this limitation by incorporating uncertainty estimation through weight distributions rather than point estimates. However, standard variational inference often relies on a single-density approximation, which can lead to poor posterior estimates and hinder model performance. We propose Boosted Bayesian Neural Networks (BBNN), a novel approach that enhances neural network weight distribution approximations using Boosting Variational Inference (BVI). By iteratively constructing a mixture of densities, BVI expands the approximating family, enabling a more expressive posterior that leads to improved generalization and uncertainty estimation. While this approach increases computational complexity, it significantly enhances accuracy an essential tradeoff, particularly in high-stakes applications such as medical diagnostics, where false negatives can have severe consequences. Our experimental results demonstrate that BBNN achieves ~5% higher accuracy compared to conventional neural networks while providing superior uncertainty quantification. This improvement highlights the effectiveness of leveraging a mixture-based variational family to better approximate the posterior distribution, ultimately advancing probabilistic deep learning.
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