arXiv:2503.14076cs.LGcs.AI2025-03被引 2

首次为基于流的时序生成提供理论保障,涵盖逼近、泛化与效率。

Theoretical Foundation of Flow-Based Time Series Generation: Provable Approximation, Generalization, and Efficiency

  • 基于流的生成模型在扩散变换器下可任意逼近数据分布。
  • 引入多项式正则化,使泛化误差可被严格界定。
  • 生成采样等价于优化过程,可用标准梯度下降快速收敛。

近年来,生成模型逐渐取代传统自回归算法用于时序预测任务。尽管基于GAN、扩散模型和流匹配的非自回归方法在实践中展现出高质量生成能力与高精度,但其逼近与泛化性能仍缺乏理论理解。本文首次从流生成模型视角构建理论框架,从逼近、泛化与效率三方面提供严格保证:首先,在一般数据建模假设下,流生成模型通过扩散变换器(DiT)的通用逼近性,可收敛至任意小误差;其次,引入基于多项式的正则化,使泛化误差由多项式逼近性质所控制而可被界定;最后,将生成采样视为优化过程,证明其可通过标准一阶梯度下降实现快速收敛。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Recent studies suggest utilizing generative models instead of traditional auto-regressive algorithms for time series forecasting (TSF) tasks. These non-auto-regressive approaches involving different generative methods, including GAN, Diffusion, and Flow Matching for time series, have empirically demonstrated high-quality generation capability and accuracy. However, we still lack an appropriate understanding of how it processes approximation and generalization. This paper presents the first theoretical framework from the perspective of flow-based generative models to relieve the knowledge of limitations. In particular, we provide our insights with strict guarantees from three perspectives: $\textbf{Approximation}$, $\textbf{Generalization}$ and $\textbf{Efficiency}$. In detail, our analysis achieves the contributions as follows: $\bullet$ By assuming a general data model, the fitting of the flow-based generative models is confirmed to converge to arbitrary error under the universal approximation of Diffusion Transformer (DiT). $\bullet$ Introducing a polynomial-based regularization for flow matching, the generalization error thus be bounded since the generalization of polynomial approximation. $\bullet$ The sampling for generation is considered as an optimization process, we demonstrate its fast convergence with updating standard first-order gradient descent of some objective.

时序生成流模型理论分析扩散模型

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