arXiv:2503.14663cs.LG2025-03被引 1

用在线学习+置信预测,提升脓毒症早期预警的准确性和可信度。

Sepsyn-OLCP: An Online Learning-based Framework for Early Sepsis Prediction with Uncertainty Quantification using Conformal Prediction

  • 结合贝叶斯带索引与置信预测,实现自适应决策与不确定性量化。
  • 在不重新训练情况下,将神经网络的AUROC从0.64提升至0.73。
  • 适合需要高可靠性、实时调整的重症医疗预警系统使用。

脓毒症是医院中致死率高的严重综合征,早期预测对及时干预至关重要。然而,具备不确定性量化与自适应学习能力的早期脓毒症预测系统仍十分稀缺。本文提出Sepsyn-OLCP,一种基于在线学习的新型算法,融合置信预测进行不确定性量化,以及贝叶斯带索引实现自适应决策。通过结合贝叶斯模型的鲁棒性与置信预测的统计保证,该算法在高风险医疗场景下提供准确且可信赖的预测。我们在随机带索引设定下评估了算法的遗憾值,在受试者工作特征曲线下面积(AUROC)和F-measure上进行测试。结果表明,Sepsyn-OLCP优于现有单个模型,无需重训练和高计算成本,即可将神经网络的AUROC从0.64提升至0.73;同时模型选择策略长期收敛至最优策略。本研究提出一种基于强化学习与置信预测结合的新框架,为早期脓毒症预测提供不确定性量化,满足高风险医疗应用的关键需求。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Sepsis is a life-threatening syndrome with high morbidity and mortality in hospitals. Early prediction of sepsis plays a crucial role in facilitating early interventions for septic patients. However, early sepsis prediction systems with uncertainty quantification and adaptive learning are scarce. This paper proposes Sepsyn-OLCP, a novel online learning algorithm for early sepsis prediction by integrating conformal prediction for uncertainty quantification and Bayesian bandits for adaptive decision-making. By combining the robustness of Bayesian models with the statistical uncertainty guarantees of conformal prediction methodologies, this algorithm delivers accurate and trustworthy predictions, addressing the critical need for reliable and adaptive systems in high-stakes healthcare applications such as early sepsis prediction. We evaluate the performance of Sepsyn-OLCP in terms of regret in stochastic bandit setting, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), and F-measure. Our results show that Sepsyn-OLCP outperforms existing individual models, increasing AUROC of a neural network from 0.64 to 0.73 without retraining and high computational costs. And the model selection policy converges to the optimal strategy in the long run. We propose a novel reinforcement learning-based framework integrated with conformal prediction techniques to provide uncertainty quantification for early sepsis prediction. The proposed methodology delivers accurate and trustworthy predictions, addressing a critical need in high-stakes healthcare applications like early sepsis prediction.

脓毒症预测在线学习置信预测医疗AI

Thank you to arXiv for use of its open access interoperability. PaperDance 不是 arXiv 官方产品;中文卡片由大模型生成,请以原文为准。