用机器学习选算法,高效估算大规模网络可靠性
Data-Driven Approximation of Binary-State Network Reliability Function: Algorithm Selection and Reliability Thresholds for Large-Scale Systems
- 根据数据量大小选择模型:小数据用神经网络,大数据用多项式回归
- 在3万样本下神经网络误差仅7.24e-5,4万样本时多项式回归误差更低至5.61e-5
- 发现可靠性超0.9的网络系统几乎必然可靠,可简化计算
网络可靠性评估对现代基础设施(如电网、通信网)的鲁棒性至关重要。尽管二态网络的精确可靠性计算属于NP难问题,现有近似方法在精度、可扩展性和数据效率之间存在关键权衡。本研究在全范围(0.0–1.0)、高可靠性(0.9–1.0)和超高可靠性(0.99–1.0)三个区间评估了20种机器学习方法。结果表明,弧可靠性≥0.9的大规模网络系统接近全可靠,可进行计算简化。进一步提出数据规模驱动的算法选择范式:数据少时人工神经网络(ANN)表现更优,数据多时多项式回归(PR)精度更高。在3万样本下,ANN测试均方误差为7.24E-05;4万样本下PR达到最优5.61E-05,优于传统蒙特卡洛模拟。研究成果为可靠性工程中精度、可解释性与计算效率的平衡提供可操作指南,对基础设施韧性与系统优化具有重要意义。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Network reliability assessment is pivotal for ensuring the robustness of modern infrastructure systems, from power grids to communication networks. While exact reliability computation for binary-state networks is NP-hard, existing approximation methods face critical tradeoffs between accuracy, scalability, and data efficiency. This study evaluates 20 machine learning methods across three reliability regimes full range (0.0-1.0), high reliability (0.9-1.0), and ultra high reliability (0.99-1.0) to address these gaps. We demonstrate that large-scale networks with arc reliability larger than or equal to 0.9 exhibit near-unity system reliability, enabling computational simplifications. Further, we establish a dataset-scale-driven paradigm for algorithm selection: Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) excel with limited data, while Polynomial Regression (PR) achieves superior accuracy in data-rich environments. Our findings reveal ANN's Test-MSE of 7.24E-05 at 30,000 samples and PR's optimal performance (5.61E-05) at 40,000 samples, outperforming traditional Monte Carlo simulations. These insights provide actionable guidelines for balancing accuracy, interpretability, and computational efficiency in reliability engineering, with implications for infrastructure resilience and system optimization.
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