arXiv:2503.15801cs.LG2025-03中稿 · the 7th Annual Lea…被引 1

提出新模型分离系统随机与数据不足不确定性,提升控制与强化学习的可靠性。

Disentangling Uncertainties by Learning Compressed Data Representation

  • 通过压缩数据表示学习输出分布,支持任意分布采样
  • 在混合不确定场景下,对两类不确定性的识别AUROC分别达0.8876和0.9981
  • 适用于多模态输出等复杂场景,适合需高可靠性的决策系统研究

我们研究了在学习的回归系统动力学模型中,偶然性不确定性(系统固有随机性)与认知不确定性(数据不足)的估计。将两者解耦对风险感知控制、强化学习中的高效探索及鲁棒策略迁移等下游任务至关重要。现有方法如高斯过程、贝叶斯网络和模型集成虽广泛应用,但存在计算复杂度高或不确定性估计不准的问题。为此,我们提出压缩数据表示模型(CDRM),一种学习数据分布神经编码并支持直接从输出分布采样的框架。该方法采用基于朗之万动力学采样的新型推断流程,可预测任意输出分布,不受高斯先验限制。理论分析表明,相较于基于分箱的压缩方法,CDRM在内存与计算复杂度上更具优势。实验结果表明,CDRM能更优地分离两类不确定性,在包含混合不确定性的单个测试集上分别获得0.8876和0.9981的AUROC。定性结果进一步显示,其能力延伸至具有多模态输出分布的数据集,这是现有方法常失效的挑战性场景。代码与补充材料见https://github.com/ryeii/CDRM。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

We study aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty estimation in a learned regressive system dynamics model. Disentangling aleatoric uncertainty (the inherent randomness of the system) from epistemic uncertainty (the lack of data) is crucial for downstream tasks such as risk-aware control and reinforcement learning, efficient exploration, and robust policy transfer. While existing approaches like Gaussian Processes, Bayesian networks, and model ensembles are widely adopted, they suffer from either high computational complexity or inaccurate uncertainty estimation. To address these limitations, we propose the Compressed Data Representation Model (CDRM), a framework that learns a neural network encoding of the data distribution and enables direct sampling from the output distribution. Our approach incorporates a novel inference procedure based on Langevin dynamics sampling, allowing CDRM to predict arbitrary output distributions rather than being constrained to a Gaussian prior. Theoretical analysis provides the conditions where CDRM achieves better memory and computational complexity compared to bin-based compression methods. Empirical evaluations show that CDRM demonstrates a superior capability to identify aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties separately, achieving AUROCs of 0.8876 and 0.9981 on a single test set containing a mixture of both uncertainties. Qualitative results further show that CDRM's capability extends to datasets with multimodal output distributions, a challenging scenario where existing methods consistently fail. Code and supplementary materials are available at https://github.com/ryeii/CDRM.

不确定性估计动态建模强化学习深度学习

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