arXiv:2503.16553cs.CL2025-03被引 4

用开源大模型预测个人出行,跨场景更准更省资源

A Foundational Individual Mobility Prediction Model based on Open-Source Large Language Models

  • 基于轻量开源大模型,用高效微调技术学出行模式
  • 六数据集测试均超顶尖模型,零样本迁移能力突出
  • 适合城市交通管理、个性化服务等需要泛化能力的场景

个体出行预测在城市交通中至关重要,可支持个性化服务推荐与有效出行管理。现有方法多依赖数据驱动的机器学习与深度学习,但受限于跨数据源学习能力弱,在分布外场景(如零样本)下表现不佳。为此,本文提出MoBLLM——一种面向个体出行预测的基础模型,旨在从异构数据源中学习共享且可迁移的出行行为表征。基于轻量开源大语言模型,结合参数高效微调(PEFT)技术,构建低成本训练流程,无需大规模GPU集群即可保持强性能。我们在六个真实世界出行数据集上进行广泛实验,评估其在不同时间尺度(多年)、空间上下文(城市间)及情境条件(如突发干扰与政策干预)下的准确性、鲁棒性与可迁移性。结果显示,MoBLLM在所有数据集上均取得最佳F1分数与准确率,优于当前主流深度学习模型;相比商用大模型,展现出更强的可迁移性与成本效率。进一步实验表明,其在网络变更、政策调整、特殊事件和突发事件下仍具鲁棒性。结果证明,MoBLLM为个体出行行为建模提供了通用基础,有助于实现更可靠、自适应的个性化交通信息服务。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Individual mobility prediction plays a key role in urban transport, enabling personalized service recommendations and effective travel management. It is widely modeled by data-driven methods such as machine learning, deep learning, as well as classical econometric methods to capture key features of mobility patterns. However, such methods are hindered in promoting further transferability and robustness due to limited capacity to learn mobility patterns from different data sources, predict in out-of-distribution settings (a.k.a ``zero-shot"). To address this challenge, this paper introduces MoBLLM, a foundational model for individual mobility prediction that aims to learn a shared and transferable representation of mobility behavior across heterogeneous data sources. Based on a lightweight open-source large language model (LLM), MoBLLM employs Parameter-Efficient Fine-Tuning (PEFT) techniques to create a cost-effective training pipeline, avoiding the need for large-scale GPU clusters while maintaining strong performance. We conduct extensive experiments on six real-world mobility datasets to evaluate its accuracy, robustness, and transferability across varying temporal scales (years), spatial contexts (cities), and situational conditions (e.g., disruptions and interventions). MoBLLM achieves the best F1 score and accuracy across all datasets compared with state-of-the-art deep learning models and shows better transferability and cost efficiency than commercial LLMs. Further experiments reveal its robustness under network changes, policy interventions, special events, and incidents. These results indicate that MoBLLM provides a generalizable modeling foundation for individual mobility behavior, enabling more reliable and adaptive personalized information services for transportation management.

出行预测大模型迁移学习城市交通

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