arXiv:2503.16957physics.geo-phcs.LG2025-03被引 1

用随机森林模型预测碎屑岩微孔隙与渗透率,降低实验成本。

Uncertainty-Driven Modeling of Microporosity and Permeability in Clastic Reservoirs Using Random Forest

  • 基于粒径、孔隙度和伽马射线数据,构建随机森林预测模型。
  • 微孔隙预测准确率达93%,渗透率预测准确率达88%。
  • 适合早期勘探,尤其适用于偏远或海上区域。

在难以获取直接测量数据的碎屑岩储层中,预测微孔隙度和渗透率是储层质量评价的一大挑战。传统方法如汞注入毛细管压力(MICP)和扫描电子显微镜(SEM)成本高、耗时长。本研究旨在利用易获取的现场数据和基础实验分析,开发一种低成本的机器学习模型。采用随机森林分类器,输入参数包括孔隙度、粒径分布和光谱伽马射线(SGR)测量值,并引入不确定性分析以应对自然变异,扩充数据集并提升模型鲁棒性。模型在微孔隙度预测上达到93%准确率,在渗透率等级预测上达88%。该方法显著减少对昂贵实验室手段的依赖,为早期勘探,尤其是偏远或海洋环境中的储层评估提供高效工具。机器学习结合不确定性分析,为硅质碎屑岩储层的关键属性评估提供了可靠且经济的解决方案。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Predicting microporosity and permeability in clastic reservoirs is a challenge in reservoir quality assessment, especially in formations where direct measurements are difficult or expensive. These reservoir properties are fundamental in determining a reservoir's capacity for fluid storage and transmission, yet conventional methods for evaluating them, such as Mercury Injection Capillary Pressure (MICP) and Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM), are resource-intensive. The aim of this study is to develop a cost-effective machine learning model to predict complex reservoir properties using readily available field data and basic laboratory analyses. A Random Forest classifier was employed, utilizing key geological parameters such as porosity, grain size distribution, and spectral gamma-ray (SGR) measurements. An uncertainty analysis was applied to account for natural variability, expanding the dataset, and enhancing the model's robustness. The model achieved a high level of accuracy in predicting microporosity (93%) and permeability levels (88%). By using easily obtainable data, this model reduces the reliance on expensive laboratory methods, making it a valuable tool for early-stage exploration, especially in remote or offshore environments. The integration of machine learning with uncertainty analysis provides a reliable and cost-effective approach for evaluating key reservoir properties in siliciclastic formations. This model offers a practical solution to improve reservoir quality assessments, enabling more informed decision-making and optimizing exploration efforts.

储层预测随机森林机器学习

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