arXiv:2503.17037cs.LG2025-03被引 6

提出新方法生成更真实因果数据集,解决现有模拟数据的虚假规律问题。

Unitless Unrestricted Markov-Consistent SCM Generation: Better Benchmark Datasets for Causal Discovery

  • 基于因果顺序设计无量纲采样策略,避免变量方差与决定系数异常排序
  • 在密集图上解决iSCM反向R2排序缺陷,提升数据真实性
  • 扩展至时间序列场景,适用于真实世界因果发现评估

因果发现旨在从数据中提取因果图形式的定性因果知识。由于真实世界的因果真值极少可知,模拟数据在评估各类因果发现算法性能中起关键作用。但近期研究指出,常用结构因果模型(SCM)数据生成技术存在某些伪像,包括方差可排序性(var-sortability)和决定系数可排序性(R2-sortability),即变量的方差及对所有其他变量回归后的决定系数随因果顺序递增,这些伪像被部分因果方法利用,导致其在真实数据上表现预期过高。已有改进如内部标准化结构因果模型(iSCM)可消除方差可排序性,并显著缓解稀疏图中的R2可排序性问题,但在稠密图中出现反向R2可排序现象。本文分析真实数据中应存在的可排序模式,提出一种更有效覆盖SCM空间的系数采样方法;并进一步将该方法拓展至时间序列设定,构建更可靠的因果发现基准数据集。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Causal discovery aims to extract qualitative causal knowledge in the form of causal graphs from data. Because causal ground truth is rarely known in the real world, simulated data plays a vital role in evaluating the performance of the various causal discovery algorithms proposed in the literature. But recent work highlighted certain artifacts of commonly used data generation techniques for a standard class of structural causal models (SCM) that may be nonphysical, including var- and R2-sortability, where the variables' variance and coefficients of determination (R2) after regressing on all other variables, respectively, increase along the causal order. Some causal methods exploit such artifacts, leading to unrealistic expectations for their performance on real-world data. Some modifications have been proposed to remove these artifacts; notably, the internally-standardized structural causal model (iSCM) avoids varsortability and largely alleviates R2-sortability on sparse causal graphs, but exhibits a reversed R2-sortability pattern for denser graphs not featured in their work. We analyze which sortability patterns we expect to see in real data, and propose a method for drawing coefficients that we argue more effectively samples the space of SCMs. Finally, we propose a novel extension of our SCM generation method to the time series setting.

因果发现数据生成结构因果模型基准测试

Thank you to arXiv for use of its open access interoperability. PaperDance 不是 arXiv 官方产品;中文卡片由大模型生成,请以原文为准。