arXiv:2503.17515cs.LGcs.AI2025-03

构建实时预测架构,提升空域管理效率与可持续性

A Predictive Services Architecture for Efficient Airspace Operations

  • 整合海量动态数据,通过特征提取与多模型融合预测空域状态
  • 在美欧空域测试中实现高效准确的未来系统状态预测
  • 适合空管机构和航司用于优化调度与降低燃油消耗

预测空中交通拥堵与流量管理对航空公司及空中航行服务提供者(ANSP)提升运营效率至关重要。准确估算未来机场容量与空域密度有助于改善空域管理,减轻空管员工作负担并降低燃油消耗,推动航空业可持续发展。尽管已有研究应对这些挑战,但海量高频空管数据带来的数据管理和查询处理仍具复杂性。多数分析场景需共用预处理基础设施,临时方案难以满足需求。线性预测模型常表现不足,亟需更先进的方法。本文提出一种数据处理与预测服务架构,可接收大规模、异构且含噪的流式数据,预测未来空域系统状态。系统持续采集原始数据,定期压缩并存入NoSQL数据库以支持高效查询。预测阶段基于历史交通数据提取关键特征,如机场起降事件、扇区穿越、天气参数及其他空管数据,输入线性、非线性及集成模型,择优使用。我们在美国国家空域系统(NAS)和欧洲部分空域的三个预测用例中评估该架构,采用大量真实运行数据,验证了系统在效率与准确性上的优越表现。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Predicting air traffic congestion and flow management is essential for airlines and Air Navigation Service Providers (ANSP) to enhance operational efficiency. Accurate estimates of future airport capacity and airspace density are vital for better airspace management, reducing air traffic controller workload and fuel consumption, ultimately promoting sustainable aviation. While existing literature has addressed these challenges, data management and query processing remain complex due to the vast volume of high-rate air traffic data. Many analytics use cases require a common pre-processing infrastructure, as ad-hoc approaches are insufficient. Additionally, linear prediction models often fall short, necessitating more advanced techniques. This paper presents a data processing and predictive services architecture that ingests large, uncorrelated, and noisy streaming data to forecast future airspace system states. The system continuously collects raw data, periodically compresses it, and stores it in NoSQL databases for efficient query processing. For prediction, the system learns from historical traffic by extracting key features such as airport arrival and departure events, sector boundary crossings, weather parameters, and other air traffic data. These features are input into various regression models, including linear, non-linear, and ensemble models, with the best-performing model selected for predictions. We evaluate this infrastructure across three prediction use cases in the US National Airspace System (NAS) and a segment of European airspace, using extensive real operations data, confirming that our system can predict future system states efficiently and accurately.

空域管理实时预测数据架构航空可持续

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