arXiv:2503.17688cs.AI2025-03被引 1

智能演进顺序决定未来形态:先出现AGI还是去中心化集体智能,将锁定不可逆的文明走向。

Intelligence Sequencing and the Path-Dependence of Intelligence Evolution: AGI-First vs. DCI-First as Irreversible Attractors

  • 提出智能演进路径依赖理论,强调发展顺序比技术本身更关键。
  • 证明一旦进入集中式或去中心式轨道,转型几乎不可能发生。
  • 适合关注AI安全、文明长期风险与系统设计的决策者和研究者。

智能演进轨迹常被视作通用人工智能(AGI)的出现及其与人类价值观对齐的问题。本文挑战这一框架,提出智能序列性概念:即AGI与去中心化集体智能(DCI)的涌现顺序决定了智能的长期吸引子。基于动力系统、演化博弈论与网络模型,论文指出智能遵循路径依赖且不可逆的演化轨迹。一旦进入集中式(AGI-first)或去中心式(DCI-first)模式,因反馈回路与资源锁定,转型成为结构性难题。智能吸引子在功能状态空间中表现为概念与适应性适应空间的协同导航。早期结构约束后期动态,类似物理学中的重整化。这深刻影响AI安全:传统对齐假定AGI先出现再控制,但本文认为智能序列更根本。若AGI先行主导而未等DCI达到临界规模,则等级垄断与存在性风险将被锁定;若DCI先行,则智能趋于去中心化合作均衡。论文进一步探讨智能是否因其自我建模方式——外部赋权公理(倾向AGI)或递归内视化(倾向DCI)——而结构性偏向某一吸引子。最后提出通过模拟、历史锁死案例与智能网络分析验证该理论。结果表明,智能序列是文明转折点:决定未来是无尽竞争还是无限合作。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

The trajectory of intelligence evolution is often framed around the emergence of artificial general intelligence (AGI) and its alignment with human values. This paper challenges that framing by introducing the concept of intelligence sequencing: the idea that the order in which AGI and decentralized collective intelligence (DCI) emerge determines the long-term attractor basin of intelligence. Using insights from dynamical systems, evolutionary game theory, and network models, it argues that intelligence follows a path-dependent, irreversible trajectory. Once development enters a centralized (AGI-first) or decentralized (DCI-first) regime, transitions become structurally infeasible due to feedback loops and resource lock-in. Intelligence attractors are modeled in functional state space as the co-navigation of conceptual and adaptive fitness spaces. Early-phase structuring constrains later dynamics, much like renormalization in physics. This has major implications for AI safety: traditional alignment assumes AGI will emerge and must be controlled after the fact, but this paper argues that intelligence sequencing is more foundational. If AGI-first architectures dominate before DCI reaches critical mass, hierarchical monopolization and existential risk become locked in. If DCI-first emerges, intelligence stabilizes around decentralized cooperative equilibrium. The paper further explores whether intelligence structurally biases itself toward an attractor based on its self-modeling method -- externally imposed axioms (favoring AGI) vs. recursive internal visualization (favoring DCI). Finally, it proposes methods to test this theory via simulations, historical lock-in case studies, and intelligence network analysis. The findings suggest that intelligence sequencing is a civilizational tipping point: determining whether the future is shaped by unbounded competition or unbounded cooperation.

AI安全路径依赖文明演化

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