预测南美2050年可再生能源发电量将达当前3倍，太阳能和风能增长最快。
Renewable Energy Transition in South America: Predictive Analysis of Generation Capacity by 2050
- 用梯度提升回归与Prophet模型分析历史能源数据预测未来产能。
- 到2050年南美可再生能源发电量预计增长近3倍，巴西和智利领跑。
- 可视化展示区域差异，助力政策制定与可持续投资决策。
本研究基于机器学习模型，利用历史能源数据预测南美洲至2050年的可再生能源发展。采用梯度提升回归与Prophet时间序列预测方法，对太阳能、风能、水力、地热、生物质及其他可再生能源在南美各国的装机容量进行预测。模型分析显示未来可再生能源发电量将出现显著扩张，其中太阳能和风能增长最快。通过地理空间可视化方法呈现了各地区可再生能源利用的差异。预测结果表明，到2050年南美洲可再生能源发电量将接近当前水平的3倍，巴西和智利将成为区域发展的引领者。这些预测有助于制定能源政策、投资策略及气候减缓措施，支持发展中经济体向可持续能源转型。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
In this research, renewable energy expansion in South America up to 2050 is predicted based on machine learning models that are trained on past energy data. The research employs gradient boosting regression and Prophet time series forecasting to make predictions of future generation capacities for solar, wind, hydroelectric, geothermal, biomass, and other renewable sources in South American nations. Model output analysis indicates staggering future expansion in the generation of renewable energy, with solar and wind energy registering the highest expansion rates. Geospatial visualization methods were applied to illustrate regional disparities in the utilization of renewable energy. The results forecast South America to record nearly 3-fold growth in the generation of renewable energy by the year 2050, with Brazil and Chile spearheading regional development. Such projections help design energy policy, investment strategy, and climate change mitigation throughout the region, in helping the developing economies to transition to sustainable energy.
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