用生成模型验证物理定律,精准捕捉因果效应分布
Generative AI for Validating Physics Laws
- 构建三子网神经网络,联合估计处理效应的分位数分布
- 小样本下误差降低超70%,优于随机森林等主流方法
- 适合需分析非线性因果关系的物理与天体数据研究
我们提出一种生成式学习器,用于估计异质处理效应并刻画因果效应的完整分布。该学习器采用多头前馈神经网络结构,包含三个联合估计的子网络:倾向得分、基线结果和异质处理效应;其中处理效应子网络通过组合协变量特征与余弦分位数嵌入的元素乘积,参数化条件分位数函数。这一分位数形式可将条件平均处理效应表示为分位数处理效应的积分,同时刻画整个效应分布。在奈曼-鲁宾因果模型的经典假设下,我们证明所提生成学习器在各类实验设计中表现均优,出样本均方误差常较广义随机森林、双机器学习及生成对抗网络提升超过70%,尤其在小样本条件下优势显著。作为实证应用,我们将斯特凡-玻尔兹曼定律形式化为单向因果模型,并应用于盖亚DR3恒星数据。该方法成功恢复了预期的非线性温度-光度关系,并量化了不同恒星半径与绝对星等下的异质效应。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
We propose generative learner for estimating heterogeneous treatment effects and characterizing the full distribution of causal effects. The learner takes the form of a multi-head feed-forward neural network with three jointly estimated subnetworks, propensity score, baseline outcome, and heterogeneous treatment effects, where the treatment-effect subnetwork parameterizes the conditional quantile function via a compositional architecture in which covariate features and cosine quantile embeddings are combined through element-wise multiplication. This quantile-based formulation recovers the conditional average treatment effect as an integral over quantile treatment effects while additionally characterizing the entire effect distribution. Under the classical assumptions in a Neyman--Rubin causal model, we demonstrate that the performance gains of the proposed generative learner are consistent across experimental designs and frequently exceed 70% in out-of-sample mean squared error when compared to the generalized random forest, double machine learning, and generative adversarial networks. These gains are particularly pronounced in small samples. As an empirical application, we formalize the Stefan--Boltzmann law as a unidirectional causal model and apply the method to Gaia DR3 stellar data. The method recovers the expected nonlinear temperature--luminosity relationship and quantifies heterogeneous effects across stellar radius and absolute magnitude.
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