通过因果图建模出行模式,提升位置预测准确性。
Causality-Aware Next Location Prediction Framework based on Human Mobility Stratification
- 构建用户-地点-时间的因果图,捕捉出行模式间真实关系。
- 针对非锚点出行引入反事实推理,增强间接影响建模。
- 可插拔集成现有模型,提升性能与可解释性。
人类移动数据融合了多种出行模式,通过整合用户、地点和时间信息,提取隐藏的时空模式以提高下一次位置预测的准确性。现有方法忽视了人类移动数据中不同因果关系的影响,导致混淆信息干扰预测效果。为此,本文提出一种因果感知的下一次位置预测框架,聚焦于出行模式的人类移动分层。研究构建了一个新颖的因果图,描述各输入变量间的关联关系,并利用反事实推理增强特定出行模式(非锚点目标出行)中的间接效应。所提框架设计为可插拔模块,可集成多种主流位置预测范式。在多个先进模型和人类移动数据集上测试表明,该模块显著提升预测性能。此外,通过消融实验和定量分析验证了因果图的有效性及其对现有模型可解释性的增强能力。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Human mobility data are fused with multiple travel patterns and hidden spatiotemporal patterns are extracted by integrating user, location, and time information to improve next location prediction accuracy. In existing next location prediction methods, different causal relationships that result from patterns in human mobility data are ignored, which leads to confounding information that can have a negative effect on predictions. Therefore, this study introduces a causality-aware framework for next location prediction, focusing on human mobility stratification for travel patterns. In our research, a novel causal graph is developed that describes the relationships between various input variables. We use counterfactuals to enhance the indirect effects in our causal graph for specific travel patterns: non-anchor targeted travels. The proposed framework is designed as a plug-and-play module that integrates multiple next location prediction paradigms. We tested our proposed framework using several state-of-the-art models and human mobility datasets, and the results reveal that the proposed module improves the prediction performance. In addition, we provide results from the ablation study and quantitative study to demonstrate the soundness of our causal graph and its ability to further enhance the interpretability of the current next location prediction models.
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