用双线性池化实现气象与污染的离线耦合,大幅降低计算成本。
Offline Meteorology-Pollution Coupling Global Air Pollution Forecasting Model with Bilinear Pooling
- 采用双线性池化实现气象场与污染物的离线耦合,无需实时同步计算。
- 参数量仅为在线耦合模型的13%,在63%变量上优于CAMS模型。
- 适合需要高效实时预测的空气质量预警系统和AI大气建模研究者。
空气污染已成为威胁人类健康的重大问题,精准预测对污染控制至关重要。传统基于物理的方法通过在线或离线方式耦合气象与污染过程进行全球污染预测,但计算开销大,限制了实时性。现有深度学习方案多采用在线耦合策略,依赖预训练大气模型微调,需大量训练资源。本研究首次提出基于深度学习的离线耦合框架,利用双线性池化实现气象场与污染物的离线耦合。所提模型参数量仅为在线耦合模型的13%,性能相当。相比最先进模型CAMS,本方法在所有预报时间步中63%的变量表现更优,在48小时以上的预测中85%变量领先。实验验证了气象场在深度学习全球污染预测中的有效性,离线耦合使所有污染变量的均方根误差相对降低15%。该研究建立了实时全球污染预警新范式,为高效、全面的AI驱动大气预报框架提供关键技术支撑。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Air pollution has become a major threat to human health, making accurate forecasting crucial for pollution control. Traditional physics-based models forecast global air pollution by coupling meteorology and pollution processes, using either online or offline methods depending on whether fully integrated with meteorological models and run simultaneously. However, the high computational demands of both methods severely limit real-time prediction efficiency. Existing deep learning (DL) solutions employ online coupling strategies for global air pollution forecasting, which finetune pollution forecasting based on pretrained atmospheric models, requiring substantial training resources. This study pioneers a DL-based offline coupling framework that utilizes bilinear pooling to achieve offline coupling between meteorological fields and pollutants. The proposed model requires only 13% of the parameters of DL-based online coupling models while achieving competitive performance. Compared with the state-of-the-art global air pollution forecasting model CAMS, our approach demonstrates superiority in 63% variables across all forecast time steps and 85% variables in predictions exceeding 48 hours. This work pioneers experimental validation of the effectiveness of meteorological fields in DL-based global air pollution forecasting, demonstrating that offline coupling meteorological fields with pollutants can achieve a 15% relative reduction in RMSE across all pollution variables. The research establishes a new paradigm for real-time global air pollution warning systems and delivers critical technical support for developing more efficient and comprehensive AI-powered global atmospheric forecasting frameworks.
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