arXiv:2503.18589cs.CV2025-03CVPR被引 20

统一建模轨迹补全与不确定性估计,提升预测可靠性

Unified Uncertainty-Aware Diffusion for Multi-Agent Trajectory Modeling

  • 用扩散模型统一处理轨迹补全与状态级不确定性
  • 在4个体育数据集上优于现有方法,误差概率与真实误差强相关
  • 适合需要可信预测的场景,如自动驾驶、运动分析

多智能体轨迹建模主要聚焦于未来状态预测,常忽略轨迹补全等实际应用任务。现有方法通常不提供状态级不确定性度量,且主流多模态采样无法给出每种生成场景的误差概率,难以在推理时排序预测结果。我们提出U2Diff,一种统一的扩散模型,可同时完成轨迹补全并提供状态级不确定性估计。通过在去噪损失中加入预测噪声的负对数似然,并将潜在空间不确定性传播至真实状态空间实现不确定性建模。此外,引入排名神经网络进行后处理,为每个生成模式提供误差概率估计,实证显示其与真实误差高度相关。在四个挑战性体育数据集(NBA、Basketball-U、Football-U、Soccer-U)上,该方法在轨迹补全和预测任务中均优于当前最优方案,验证了不确定性与误差概率估计的有效性。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Multi-agent trajectory modeling has primarily focused on forecasting future states, often overlooking broader tasks like trajectory completion, which are crucial for real-world applications such as correcting tracking data. Existing methods also generally predict agents' states without offering any state-wise measure of uncertainty. Moreover, popular multi-modal sampling methods lack any error probability estimates for each generated scene under the same prior observations, making it difficult to rank the predictions during inference time. We introduce U2Diff, a \textbf{unified} diffusion model designed to handle trajectory completion while providing state-wise \textbf{uncertainty} estimates jointly. This uncertainty estimation is achieved by augmenting the simple denoising loss with the negative log-likelihood of the predicted noise and propagating latent space uncertainty to the real state space. Additionally, we incorporate a Rank Neural Network in post-processing to enable \textbf{error probability} estimation for each generated mode, demonstrating a strong correlation with the error relative to ground truth. Our method outperforms the state-of-the-art solutions in trajectory completion and forecasting across four challenging sports datasets (NBA, Basketball-U, Football-U, Soccer-U), highlighting the effectiveness of uncertainty and error probability estimation. Video at https://youtu.be/ngw4D4eJToE

轨迹预测扩散模型不确定性估计多智能体

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