用风险控制方法生成更可靠的异常检测阈值,减少太阳能电站停机损失。
Risk-Based Thresholding for Reliable Anomaly Detection in Concentrated Solar Power Plants
- 基于风险控制框架,动态设定异常判定阈值,确保有限样本下的可靠性
- 引入置信度评估机制,高风险预测可交由专家处理,降低误判风险
- 结合序列图像密度估计,提升异常检测准确率,适用于真实运维场景
集中式太阳能电站(CSP)高效可靠运行对满足可持续能源需求至关重要。高温太阳能接收器面临冻裂、变形和腐蚀等严重运行风险,导致高昂的停机与维护成本。为监测运行状态,安装在接收器上的摄像头以1至5分钟不等的非规律间隔拍摄红外图像。通过设定异常得分阈值来识别异常图像,传统方法依赖验证集上F1分数优化阈值。本文提出一种基于风险控制的框架,可在任意选定风险函数下提供有限样本覆盖保证,生成更可靠的决策阈值;同时引入拒答机制,允许高风险预测交由领域专家处理。其次,提出一种密度预测方法,基于历史图像序列估计当前图像的似然概率,将其作为异常得分。最后,在两个CSP电站上部署该框架,跨多个月份的训练场景分析为工业合作伙伴提供了优化维护策略的重要洞见。由于数据保密性,本文还构建了扩展模拟数据集,利用生成建模技术合成多样化的热成像,模拟多个CSP电站;代码已公开。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Efficient and reliable operation of Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) plants is essential for meeting the growing demand for sustainable energy. However, high-temperature solar receivers face severe operational risks, such as freezing, deformation, and corrosion, resulting in costly downtime and maintenance. To monitor CSP plants, cameras mounted on solar receivers record infrared images at irregular intervals ranging from one to five minutes throughout the day. Anomalous images can be detected by thresholding an anomaly score, where the threshold is chosen to optimize metrics such as the F1-score on a validation set. This work proposes a framework, using risk control, for generating more reliable decision thresholds with finite-sample coverage guarantees on any chosen risk function. Our framework also incorporates an abstention mechanism, allowing high-risk predictions to be deferred to domain experts. Second, we propose a density forecasting method to estimate the likelihood of an observed image given a sequence of previously observed images, using this likelihood as its anomaly score. Third, we analyze the deployment results of our framework across multiple training scenarios over several months for two CSP plants. This analysis provides valuable insights to our industry partner for optimizing maintenance operations. Finally, given the confidential nature of our dataset, we provide an extended simulated dataset, leveraging recent advancements in generative modeling to create diverse thermal images that simulate multiple CSP plants. Our code is publicly available.
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