用博弈论与随机搜索,让AI自动迭代生成高质量科研假说。
Iterative Hypothesis Generation for Scientific Discovery with Monte Carlo Nash Equilibrium Self-Refining Trees
- 结合蒙特卡洛树搜索与纳什均衡,动态优化假说生成过程。
- 在三个领域平均得分超基准方法0.1以上,最高达2.80分。
- 适合需要创新性假说的科研人员,支持人机协作增强创造力。
科学假说生成是研究中的核心挑战,需融合新颖性与实证依据。传统方法依赖人工直觉,纯大模型方法常缺乏可靠性和创新性。为此,本文提出蒙特卡洛纳什均衡自精炼树(MC-NEST)框架,将蒙特卡洛树搜索与纳什均衡策略结合,实现假说的迭代优化与验证。通过自适应采样策略,动态平衡探索与利用,在保持搜索多样性的同时聚焦高潜力方向。在生物医学、社会科学和计算机科学多个领域进行实验,MC-NEST在新颖性、清晰度、重要性和可验证性四维评分上分别获得2.65、2.74、2.80分(1-3分制),显著优于当前最优提示工程方法(分别为2.36、2.51、2.52)。该框架支持结构化人机协作,确保大模型辅助而非替代人类创造力。其伦理设计强调透明性与人工监管,为自动化假说生成设立新标准。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Scientific hypothesis generation is a fundamentally challenging task in research, requiring the synthesis of novel and empirically grounded insights. Traditional approaches rely on human intuition and domain expertise, while purely large language model (LLM) based methods often struggle to produce hypotheses that are both innovative and reliable. To address these limitations, we propose the Monte Carlo Nash Equilibrium Self-Refine Tree (MC-NEST), a novel framework that integrates Monte Carlo Tree Search with Nash Equilibrium strategies to iteratively refine and validate hypotheses. MC-NEST dynamically balances exploration and exploitation through adaptive sampling strategies, which prioritize high-potential hypotheses while maintaining diversity in the search space. We demonstrate the effectiveness of MC-NEST through comprehensive experiments across multiple domains, including biomedicine, social science, and computer science. MC-NEST achieves average scores of 2.65, 2.74, and 2.80 (on a 1-3 scale) for novelty, clarity, significance, and verifiability metrics on the social science, computer science, and biomedicine datasets, respectively, outperforming state-of-the-art prompt-based methods, which achieve 2.36, 2.51, and 2.52 on the same datasets. These results underscore MC-NEST's ability to generate high-quality, empirically grounded hypotheses across diverse domains. Furthermore, MC-NEST facilitates structured human-AI collaboration, ensuring that LLMs augment human creativity rather than replace it. By addressing key challenges such as iterative refinement and the exploration-exploitation balance, MC-NEST sets a new benchmark in automated hypothesis generation. Additionally, MC-NEST's ethical design enables responsible AI use, emphasizing transparency and human supervision in hypothesis generation.
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