arXiv:2503.19354cs.LGphysics.ao-ph2025-03

融合Swin-Unet与扩散模型,提升中尺度天气预报精度

Data-driven Mesoscale Weather Forecasting Combining Swin-Unet and Diffusion Models

  • 用Swin-Unet作确定性预测,扩散模型捕捉精细细节
  • 加入扩散模型后分数技能得分提升,强降雨预报更准
  • 模型更新灵活,适合实时天气预报系统

数据驱动的天气预测模型表现优异且持续进步。扩散模型能保留细粒度空间结构,避免平滑效应,对中尺度预报(如强降雨)至关重要。但其在中尺度预测中的应用仍有限。本文提出一种新架构:将扩散模型与Swin-Unet结合,实现中尺度预测的同时保持灵活性。两模型独立训练,更新确定性模型时扩散模型无需重训。通过分数技能得分与功率谱分析对比发现,引入扩散模型显著提升预测精度。结果表明该架构可有效增强中尺度预报能力,尤其适用于强降雨事件,且具备良好可扩展性。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Data-driven weather prediction models exhibit promising performance and advance continuously. In particular, diffusion models represent fine-scale details without spatial smoothing, which is crucial for mesoscale predictions, such as heavy rainfall forecasting. However, the applications of diffusion models to mesoscale prediction remain limited. To address this gap, this study proposes an architecture that combines a diffusion model with Swin-Unet as a deterministic model, achieving mesoscale predictions while maintaining flexibility. The proposed architecture trains the two models independently, allowing the diffusion model to remain unchanged when the deterministic model is updated. Comparisons using the Fractions Skill Score and power spectral analysis demonstrate that incorporating the diffusion model leads to improved accuracy compared to predictions without it. These findings underscore the potential of the proposed architecture to enhance mesoscale predictions, particularly for strong rainfall events, while maintaining flexibility.

天气预报扩散模型Swin-Unet

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