arXiv:2503.19940physics.ao-phcs.AI2025-03ICCV被引 2

用物理模型提升天气预测精度,让结果更真实可靠。

FuXi-RTM: A Physics-Guided Prediction Framework with Radiative Transfer Modeling

  • 融合深度学习与辐射传输物理模型,实现精准预报。
  • 在3320组变量与预报时长中,88.51%表现优于传统方法。
  • 适合需要高可信度的气象预报与气候研究者使用。

当前基于深度学习的天气预测框架常缺乏显式物理约束,导致输出不物理,影响业务预报可靠性。其中辐射过程至关重要,但传统数值天气预报(NWP)模型因复杂性与高计算成本难以精确模拟。本文提出FuXi-RTM,一种混合物理引导的深度学习框架,将主预报模型(FuXi)与固定深度学习辐射传输模型(DLRTM)结合,替代传统辐射参数化方案。这是首个显式融入物理过程建模的深度学习天气预报框架。在为期五年的综合数据集上评估显示,其在3320组变量与预报时长组合中,88.51%情况下优于无约束对照模型,尤其提升了辐射通量预测精度。该框架为下一代兼具准确性与物理一致性的天气预报系统奠定基础。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Similar to conventional video generation, current deep learning-based weather prediction frameworks often lack explicit physical constraints, leading to unphysical outputs that limit their reliability for operational forecasting. Among various physical processes requiring proper representation, radiation plays a fundamental role as it drives Earth's weather and climate systems. However, accurate simulation of radiative transfer processes remains challenging for traditional numerical weather prediction (NWP) models due to their inherent complexity and high computational costs. Here, we propose FuXi-RTM, a hybrid physics-guided deep learning framework designed to enhance weather forecast accuracy while enforcing physical consistency. FuXi-RTM integrates a primary forecasting model (FuXi) with a fixed deep learning-based radiative transfer model (DLRTM) surrogate that efficiently replaces conventional radiation parameterization schemes. This represents the first deep learning-based weather forecasting framework to explicitly incorporate physical process modeling. Evaluated over a comprehensive 5-year dataset, FuXi-RTM outperforms its unconstrained counterpart in 88.51% of 3320 variable and lead time combinations, with improvements in radiative flux predictions. By incorporating additional physical processes, FuXi-RTM paves the way for next-generation weather forecasting systems that are both accurate and physically consistent.

天气预测物理引导辐射传输深度学习

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