融合LSTM、GRU与稀疏注意力的模型,提升犯罪时空预测精度。
Innovative LSGTime Model for Crime Spatiotemporal Prediction Based on MindSpore Framework
- 结合LSTM/GRU与多头稀疏自注意力,协同捕捉时空模式。
- 在4个真实数据集上,误差指标均优于CNN模型。
- 适合城市安全规划与警力调度场景使用。
随着城市化进程加快,犯罪活动的时空特征日益复杂。准确预测犯罪分布对优化警力资源配置和预防犯罪至关重要。本文提出LGSTime模型,融合长短期记忆网络(LSTM)、门控循环单元(GRU)与多头稀疏自注意力机制。LSTM与GRU通过其门控机制捕捉犯罪时间序列中的长期依赖关系,如季节性和周期性;多头稀疏自注意力则通过并行处理与稀疏化技术,同步建模犯罪事件的时空特征,显著提升计算效率与预测精度。该集成模型充分发挥各组件优势,更有效地处理复杂的时空数据。实验结果表明,该模型在四个真实世界犯罪数据集上表现最优。相较于CNN模型,在均方误差(MSE)、平均绝对误差(MAE)和均方根误差(RMSE)三项指标上分别提升2.8%、1.9%和1.4%。这些结果为应对犯罪预测挑战提供了重要参考。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
With the acceleration of urbanization, the spatiotemporal characteristics of criminal activities have become increasingly complex. Accurate prediction of crime distribution is crucial for optimizing the allocation of police resources and preventing crime. This paper proposes LGSTime, a crime spatiotemporal prediction model that integrates Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU), and the Multi-head Sparse Self-attention mechanism. LSTM and GRU capture long-term dependencies in crime time series, such as seasonality and periodicity, through their unique gating mechanisms. The Multi-head Sparse Self-attention mechanism, on the other hand, focuses on both temporal and spatial features of criminal events simultaneously through parallel processing and sparsification techniques, significantly improving computational efficiency and prediction accuracy. The integrated model leverages the strengths of each technique to better handle complex spatiotemporal data. Experimental findings demonstrate that the model attains optimal performance across four real - world crime datasets. In comparison to the CNN model, it exhibits performance enhancements of 2.8\%, 1.9\%, and 1.4\% in the Mean Squared Error (MSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) metrics respectively. These results offer a valuable reference for tackling the challenges in crime prediction.
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