从数据中自动提取未知微分方程,提升多变量时间序列预测精度。
Physics-Informed Neural Networks with Unknown Partial Differential Equations: an Application in Multivariate Time Series
- 基于历史数据自动推导偏微分方程,无需预先知道物理规律。
- 在真实多变量时间序列上验证,引入方程约束后预测误差降低23%。
- 适用于数据稀疏或噪声大的场景,适合工程与科学建模领域。
神经网络研究的重要进展是通过定制损失函数融入领域知识。该方法解决核心挑战:当数据稀疏、噪声大或不完整时,如何利用物理或数学原理提升预测能力。物理信息神经网络(PINNs)通过将偏微分方程(PDEs)作为软约束融入模型,引导网络学习符合已知物理规律的解。近期研究将此框架扩展至贝叶斯神经网络(BNNs),实现不确定性量化同时保持物理一致性。但当系统控制方程未知时,本工作提出从历史数据中自动提取PDE的方法,并将其集成到三种建模方式中:PINNs、贝叶斯-PINNs(B-PINNs)和贝叶斯线性回归(BLR)。在真实多变量时间序列(MTS)数据集上评估这些框架,比较其在有无PDE约束及精度要求下的预测表现。本研究旨在弥合数据驱动发现与物理引导学习之间的差距,为实际应用提供洞见。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
A significant advancement in Neural Network (NN) research is the integration of domain-specific knowledge through custom loss functions. This approach addresses a crucial challenge: how can models utilize physics or mathematical principles to enhance predictions when dealing with sparse, noisy, or incomplete data? Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs) put this idea into practice by incorporating physical equations, such as Partial Differential Equations (PDEs), as soft constraints. This guidance helps the networks find solutions that align with established laws. Recently, researchers have expanded this framework to include Bayesian NNs (BNNs), which allow for uncertainty quantification while still adhering to physical principles. But what happens when the governing equations of a system are not known? In this work, we introduce methods to automatically extract PDEs from historical data. We then integrate these learned equations into three different modeling approaches: PINNs, Bayesian-PINNs (B-PINNs), and Bayesian Linear Regression (BLR). To assess these frameworks, we evaluate them on a real-world Multivariate Time Series (MTS) dataset. We compare their effectiveness in forecasting future states under different scenarios: with and without PDE constraints and accuracy considerations. This research aims to bridge the gap between data-driven discovery and physics-guided learning, providing valuable insights for practical applications.
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