arXiv:2503.21510cs.LGcs.CV2025-03被引 3

提出兼顾输入不确定性的贝叶斯分类框架,提升遥感土地覆盖预测可信度。

An uncertainty-aware Bayesian framework for machine learning classification models: A case study in land cover classification

  • 构建贝叶斯二次判别分析模型,显式建模输入测量不确定性
  • 在真实与合成数据上均保持高精度与稳定概率输出
  • 适合需可解释性与计量溯源的遥感分类任务

确保机器学习分类模型的预测结果附带不确定性估计,是实现可信AI的关键。现有研究多关注模型本身的认知不确定性,却很少考虑输入测量不确定性,而后者对计量溯源至关重要。本文提出一种适用于生成式机器学习分类模型的贝叶斯框架,以贝叶斯二次判别分析(BQDA)为例,应用于2020年与2021年来自哥白尼哨兵-2的计量级土地覆盖数据集。将该模型与随机森林、神经网络等主流土地覆盖分类模型进行对比。通过在合成数据上模拟不同分布类型和噪声强度的输入误差,验证其泛化能力。结果显示,无论真实数据还是合成数据,所提BQDA模型更具可信性:具备更强可解释性,显式建模输入测量不确定性,在跨域、异规模数据集上保持稳定的分类概率输出,且计算效率更高。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Ensuring that predictions of machine learning (ML) classification models are accompanied by uncertainty estimates is one of the main pillars of trustworthy AI. Current research in uncertainty quantification focuses mainly on epistemic uncertainty of the ML model, but rarely takes account of input measurement uncertainty, which is vital for traceability in metrology. In this work we propose a Bayesian framework for generative ML classification models that takes account of input measurement uncertainty. We take the specific case of a Bayesian quadratic discriminant analysis (BQDA) model, and apply it to metrological land cover datasets from Copernicus Sentinel-2 from 2020 and 2021. We benchmark the performance of the model against more popular classification models used in land cover maps such as random forests and neural networks. To validate and assess the generalisability of such a model, we also run simulations over synthetic classification data, varying distribution type and strength of the input measurement noise. We find for both real and synthetic data, the BQDA model presented is more trustworthy, in the sense that it is more interpretable, explicitly models the input measurement uncertainty, and maintains predictive performance of class probability outputs across datasets over different domains and sizes, whilst also being more computationally efficient.

贝叶斯方法不确定性量化土地覆盖分类遥感

Thank you to arXiv for use of its open access interoperability. PaperDance 不是 arXiv 官方产品;中文卡片由大模型生成,请以原文为准。